NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center

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An Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight

Tornadoes, with a strong tornado possible, large hail and wind damage remain possible this evening across parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Severe storms with large hail, wind damage and a couple of tornadoes will also be possible from the Ozarks southward into the Ark-La-Tex. Hail will be possible late tonight in parts of west and northwest Texas.

For additional details, see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook.

Critical fire weather conditions are forecast today. See details...

Critical fire weather conditions are forecast on Sat (04/27). See details...

SPC Products Overview

Hazard	Fri (04/26)	Sat (04/27)	Sun (04/28)	Mon (04/29)	Tue (04/30)	Wed (05/01)	Thu (05/02)	Fri (05/03)
Severe	Enhanced	Enhanced	Slight	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area
Fire	Critical	Critical	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area

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Severe Weather Climatology (1982-2011)

Any Severe Probabilities: 27 Apr

Tornado Probabilities: 27 Apr

Damaging Wind Probabilities: 27 Apr

Severe Hail Probabilities: 27 Apr

Significant Tornado Probabilities: 27 Apr

Significant Wind Probabilities: 27 Apr

Significant Hail Probabilities: 27 Apr

More severe weather climatology data here.

Today's Storm Report Trend


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Full-size plot here.

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La tormenta factor de riesgo.

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2024 Watch Summaries

Page last modified: April 26 2024 12:28 UTC

Wildfire Climatology (1992-2015)

100 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 27 Apr

300 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 27 Apr

1000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 27 Apr

5000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 27 Apr

More wildfire climatology data here.

Latest SPC Publications

Edwards, R., and R.L. Thompson, 2024: Right-Moving Supercell Tornadogenesis during Interaction with a Left-Moving Supercell's Rear-Flank Outflow. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [15153K PDF] (supplemental radar loop, standard enhancements [27170K MP4]), (supplemental radar loop, colorblind enhancements [33950K MP4])
Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2023: A Historical Overview on the Science of Derechos. Part II: Parent Storm Structure, Environmental Conditions, and History of Numerical Forecasts. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [10595K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2023: A Historical Overview on the Science of Derechos. Part I: Identification, Climatology, and Societal Impacts. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [6899K PDF]
Thompson, R.L., 2023: A Comparison of Right-Moving Supercell and Quasi-Linear Convective System Tornadoes in the Contiguous United States 2003-21. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [4539K PDF]
Gallo, B.T., K.A. Wilson, J.J. Choate, K. Knopfmeier, P. Skinner, B. Roberts^*, P.L. Heinselman, I.L. Jirak, and A.J. Clark, 2022: Exploring the Watch-to-Warning Space: Experimental Outlook Performance during the 2019 Spring Forecasting Experiment in NOAA's Hazardous Weather Testbed. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [4328K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., and W.A. Gallus Jr., 2022: On the Changes in Convection-Allowing WRF Forecasts of MCS Evolution due to Decreases in Model Horizontal and Vertical Grid Spacing. Part II: Impacts on QPFs. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [5607K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., and W.A. Gallus Jr., 2022: On the Changes in Convection-Allowing WRF Forecasts of MCS Evolution due to Decreases in Model Horizontal and Vertical Grid Spacing. Part I: Changes in Cold Pool Evolution. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [3655K PDF]
Harrison, D.R., M.S. Elliott, I.L. Jirak, and P.T. Marsh, 2022: Utilizing the High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast System to Produce Calibrated Probabilistic Thunderstorm Guidance. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [2549K PDF]
Find more research articles at the SPC publication archive.

Latest SPC Case Archive

Apr 25, 2024	Tornado: 6	Wind: 31	Hail: 77

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