SPC AC 160730
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY CONSISTENT THAT A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
   EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD TRACK FROM
   THE SOUTHWEST TO THE SRN ROCKIES ON D3. A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
   PERSIST FROM THE BLACK HILLS TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...INTERSECTING A
   COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD ACCELERATE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN INTO THE CNTRL
   HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY SAT.
   
   ...NRN TO SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE THE THIRD DAY OF POLEWARD TRANSPORT OF A
   MARGINALLY MOIST AIR MASS FROM THE SRN PLAINS...RETURN FLOW OFF THE
   WRN GULF SHOULD REMAIN MODEST AFTER NOT COMMENCING UNTIL LATE D2.
   SURFACE DEW POINTS /ALTHOUGH INCREASING/ WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A
   TYPICAL PLAINS WARM SECTOR...LARGELY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S/40S
   ALONG THE LEE TROUGH IN THE HIGH PLAINS TO PERHAPS LOWER 50S OVER
   THE NRN PLAINS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE ALONG
   THESE BOUNDARIES AND STRONG HEATING SHOULD GENERALLY RESULT IN WEAK
   BUOYANCY AND AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS FORMING DURING THE LATE
   AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
   
   DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH APPROACH OF THE WRN
   CONUS TROUGH...BUT SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY MODERATE AND LIKELY
   STRONGER WITH NRN EXTENT. THIS MAY SUPPORT A FEW HIGH-BASED
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL.
   STILL...WITH MID-LEVEL S/SWLYS ROUGHLY PARALLELING THE SURFACE COLD
   FRONT AND ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THIS BOUNDARY...PROSPECTS
   FOR SUSTAINED ORGANIZED STORMS APPEAR TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A
   SLIGHT RISK DELINEATION ATTM.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 05/16/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z