SPC AC 281655
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1155 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
   
   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES AND POLAR WAVE TRAIN WILL REMAIN CONFINED
   TO CANADA AND THE NRN TIER OF STATES THROUGH THE DAY TWO PERIOD.  IN
   THE LOWER LATITUDES...A HIGHER MOMENTUM CHANNEL OF ELY FLOW WILL
   PERSIST ACROSS THE SWRN DESERTS...ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF ELONGATED
   RIDGE AXIS.
   
   ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID SOUTH...
   
   SURFACE FRONT INITIALLY OVER NERN NM WILL RETREAT NWD INTO ERN CO
   FRIDAY WITH ERN EXTENSION OF BOUNDARY PUSHING SWD THROUGH THE MID MS
   AND LOWER OH VALLEYS.  THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS
   THE MID SOUTH WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
   COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO YIELD MLCAPES APPROACHING 2500-3500
   J/KG.  OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE COMPARATIVELY
   DRIER...BUT THE PRESENCE OF RATHER STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.
   
   DAYTIME HEATING AND SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT ARE
   EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON ALONG
   LENGTH OF BOUNDARY.  THE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR /0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
   OF 25-30 KT/ IS FORECAST OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WHERE
   FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE PRONOUNCED VEERING THROUGH THE LOWEST
   COUPLE OF KM.  THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
   SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.  OVER
   THE MID SOUTH...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER...BUT THE PRESENCE OF
   THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
   MAY PROMOTE A FEW MORE INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURST
   ACTIVITY.
   
   ...SRN AZ...
   
   AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOIST FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY OVER SWRN
   AZ/SERN CA WHERE PW VALUES OF 1.75-2.00 INCHES WILL BE COMMON.  THIS
   MOISTURE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE SRN FRINGE OF STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH AIR MASS BECOMING
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J PER KG/ IN AREAS WHERE
   MORNING CLOUDS DISSIPATE SOONEST.  AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A ZONE OF
   ENHANCED ELY MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS REGION...RESULTING IN
   30-35 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  AS SUCH...ENVIRONMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN
   BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS WHICH WILL MOVE/PROPAGATE WWD
   ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL
   MAY ACCOMPANY THE MORE INTENSE STORMS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 08/28/2008
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z