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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 16, 2012
Updated: Wed May 16 08:43:03 UTC 2012
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions

D4Sat, May 19, 2012 - Sun, May 20, 2012 D7Tue, May 22, 2012 - Wed, May 23, 2012
D5Sun, May 20, 2012 - Mon, May 21, 2012 D8Wed, May 23, 2012 - Thu, May 24, 2012
D6Mon, May 21, 2012 - Tue, May 22, 2012 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 160842
   SPC AC 160842
   
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0342 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012
   
   VALID 191200Z - 241200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD EXIST ON SAT/D4 FROM THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY TO THE CNTRL PLAINS...WITH INCREASINGLY LIMITED PROSPECTS
   THEREAFTER. ABOVE-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE PERSISTS WITH HIGH CONTINUITY
   AMONG THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS AND GEFS MEAN WITH THE DEPICTION OF A
   DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE
   CNTRL PLAINS ON D4. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
   E/SEWD...LIKELY REACHING THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO CNTRL PLAINS BY SAT
   AFTERNOON. CONCERNS OVER WARM SECTOR MOISTURE RETURN DESCRIBED IN
   THE D2/3 OUTLOOKS SUGGEST GFS/GEFS MEAN SURFACE DEW POINTS CONTINUE
   TO DISPLAY A HIGH BIAS. GFSX MOS AND THE ECMWF APPEAR MORE
   REASONABLE WITH GENERALLY 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS. GIVEN THE
   DAMPENING NATURE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...MID-LEVEL FLOW NEARLY
   PARALLELING THE SURFACE FRONT AND LIKELY ONLY MODERATE
   BUOYANCY...SETUP DOES NOT RENDER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AOA 30 PERCENT
   ATTM.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 05/16/2012

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: May 16, 2012
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