Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 349
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
830 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME NORTHEAST KENTUCKY
EASTERN OHIO
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA
LAKE ERIE
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 830 PM UNTIL
200 AM EDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF BRADFORD PENNSYLVANIA TO 60 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HUNTINGTON WEST VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 342...WW 344...WW
345...WW 346...WW 347...WW 348...
DISCUSSION...WELL-FORMED QLCS OVER OH/NRN KY WILL CONTINUE EWD
TOWARD THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THOUGH
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL GRADUALLY COOL/STABILIZE AHEAD OF THE
STORMS...INSTABILITY AND LOW-MIDLEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED
HAIL RISK. OTHER MORE ISOLATED CELLS MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE
OF HOURS ACROSS NE OH/NW PA IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27040.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 349 SEVERE TSTM KY OH PA WV LE 240030Z - 240600Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45WNW BFD/BRADFORD PA/ - 60SW HTS/HUNTINGTON WV/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /17WSW JHW - 57NE LOZ/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27040.
LAT...LON 42047826 37748223 37748441 42048061
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 349 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 349
VALID 240240Z - 240340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE LEX
TO 20 NW HTS TO 30 S UNI TO 10 SW PKB TO 30 E ZZV TO 30 S CAK TO
10 W CAK.
..DIAL..05/24/11
ATTN...WFO...JKL...RLX...CLE...PBZ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 349
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC011-019-043-063-069-089-127-165-173-175-197-205-240340-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BATH BOYD CARTER
ELLIOTT FLEMING GREENUP
LAWRENCE MENIFEE MONTGOMERY
MORGAN POWELL ROWAN
$$
OHC007-013-019-029-055-067-081-085-087-099-111-133-151-153-155-
167-240340-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHTABULA BELMONT CARROLL
COLUMBIANA GEAUGA HARRISON
JEFFERSON LAKE LAWRENCE
MAHONING MONROE PORTAGE
STARK SUMMIT TRUMBULL
WASHINGTON
$$
PAC003-007-019-031-039-049-053-059-073-085-121-125-240340-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGHENY BEAVER BUTLER
CLARION CRAWFORD ERIE
FOREST GREENE LAWRENCE
MERCER VENANGO WASHINGTON
$$
WVC009-011-013-017-021-029-035-039-043-051-053-069-073-079-085-
087-095-099-103-105-107-240340-
WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROOKE CABELL CALHOUN
DODDRIDGE GILMER HANCOCK
JACKSON KANAWHA LINCOLN
MARSHALL MASON OHIO
PLEASANTS PUTNAM RITCHIE
ROANE TYLER WAYNE
WETZEL WIRT WOOD
$$
LEZ147-148-149-167-168-169-240340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORELINE TO US-CANADIAN
BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 349
VALID 240140Z - 240240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GARNER..05/24/11
ATTN...WFO...JKL...RLX...CLE...PBZ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 349
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC011-019-043-063-069-089-127-165-173-175-197-205-240240-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BATH BOYD CARTER
ELLIOTT FLEMING GREENUP
LAWRENCE MENIFEE MONTGOMERY
MORGAN POWELL ROWAN
$$
OHC007-009-013-019-029-031-053-055-059-067-075-079-081-085-087-
099-105-111-115-119-121-127-133-151-153-155-157-163-167-169-
240240-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHTABULA ATHENS BELMONT
CARROLL COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON
GALLIA GEAUGA GUERNSEY
HARRISON HOLMES JACKSON
JEFFERSON LAKE LAWRENCE
MAHONING MEIGS MONROE
MORGAN MUSKINGUM NOBLE
PERRY PORTAGE STARK
SUMMIT TRUMBULL TUSCARAWAS
VINTON WASHINGTON WAYNE
$$
PAC003-007-019-031-039-049-053-059-073-085-121-125-240240-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGHENY BEAVER BUTLER
CLARION CRAWFORD ERIE
FOREST GREENE LAWRENCE
MERCER VENANGO WASHINGTON
$$
WVC009-011-013-017-021-029-035-039-043-051-053-069-073-079-085-
087-095-099-103-105-107-240240-
WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROOKE CABELL CALHOUN
DODDRIDGE GILMER HANCOCK
JACKSON KANAWHA LINCOLN
MARSHALL MASON OHIO
PLEASANTS PUTNAM RITCHIE
ROANE TYLER WAYNE
WETZEL WIRT WOOD
$$
LEZ147-148-149-167-168-169-240240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORELINE TO US-CANADIAN
BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.