Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 342
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN INDIANA
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NORTHWEST OHIO
LAKE ERIE
LAKE HURON
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF MOUNT CLEMENS MICHIGAN TO 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST
OF FORT WAYNE INDIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 338...WW 339...WW
340...WW 341...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG COLD FRONT MOVING EWD
THROUGH REGION WITHIN AN UNCAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. REGIONAL VWP DATA INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF A 50-60 KT JET STREAK LOCATED IN THE 700-500 MB
LAYER...RESULTING IN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26030.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 342 SEVERE TSTM IN MI OH LE LH 231815Z - 240200Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35NNE MTC/MOUNT CLEMENS MI/ - 50SSW FWA/FORT WAYNE IN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /13SSE ECK - 43SSW FWA/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.
LAT...LON 43068137 40318440 40318668 43068375
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 342 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #7 ON WW 342
VALID 240145Z - 240200Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW FDY TO
25 W FWA TO 30 NW FWA TO 45 SSE MTC.
WW 342 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 240200Z.
..GARNER..05/24/11
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...DTX...CLE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 342
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OHC123-240200-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
OTTAWA
$$
LEZ142-240200-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 342
VALID 240030Z - 240140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W MIE TO
45 ENE LAF TO 35 NW FWA TO 15 NNW DTW TO 10 NE MTC TO 50 E MTC.
..GARNER..05/24/11
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...DTX...CLE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 342
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC001-003-009-033-053-069-075-103-169-179-183-240140-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD
DE KALB GRANT HUNTINGTON
JAY MIAMI WABASH
WELLS WHITLEY
$$
MIC091-115-163-240140-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LENAWEE MONROE WAYNE
$$
OHC003-039-051-069-123-125-137-161-171-240140-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN DEFIANCE FULTON
HENRY OTTAWA PAULDING
PUTNAM VAN WERT WILLIAMS
$$
LCZ423-LEZ142-444-240140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
DETROIT RIVER
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 342
VALID 232320Z - 240040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW JXN
TO 50 NE MTC.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 906
..COHEN..05/23/11
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...DTX...CLE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 342
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC001-003-009-017-033-049-053-069-075-085-103-113-151-169-179-
183-240040-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD
CASS DE KALB FULTON
GRANT HUNTINGTON JAY
KOSCIUSKO MIAMI NOBLE
STEUBEN WABASH WELLS
WHITLEY
$$
MIC059-091-115-163-240040-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HILLSDALE LENAWEE MONROE
WAYNE
$$
OHC003-039-051-069-123-125-137-161-171-240040-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN DEFIANCE FULTON
HENRY OTTAWA PAULDING
PUTNAM VAN WERT WILLIAMS
$$
LCZ423-LEZ142-444-240040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
DETROIT RIVER
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 342
VALID 232220Z - 232340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW JXN
TO 20 NE FNT.
..COHEN..05/23/11
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...DTX...CLE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 342
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC001-003-009-017-033-039-049-053-069-075-085-087-099-103-113-
131-151-169-179-181-183-232340-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD
CASS DE KALB ELKHART
FULTON GRANT HUNTINGTON
JAY KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE
MARSHALL MIAMI NOBLE
PULASKI STEUBEN WABASH
WELLS WHITE WHITLEY
$$
MIC023-059-091-093-099-115-125-147-149-161-163-232340-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRANCH HILLSDALE LENAWEE
LIVINGSTON MACOMB MONROE
OAKLAND ST. CLAIR ST. JOSEPH
WASHTENAW WAYNE
$$
OHC003-039-051-069-123-125-137-161-171-232340-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN DEFIANCE FULTON
HENRY OTTAWA PAULDING
PUTNAM VAN WERT WILLIAMS
$$
LCZ422-423-460-LEZ142-444-LHZ443-464-232340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
DETROIT RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 342
VALID 232140Z - 232240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GARNER..05/23/11
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...DTX...CLE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 342
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC001-003-009-017-033-039-049-053-069-075-085-087-099-103-113-
131-151-169-179-181-183-232240-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD
CASS DE KALB ELKHART
FULTON GRANT HUNTINGTON
JAY KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE
MARSHALL MIAMI NOBLE
PULASKI STEUBEN WABASH
WELLS WHITE WHITLEY
$$
MIC023-025-059-065-075-091-093-099-115-125-147-149-161-163-
232240-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRANCH CALHOUN HILLSDALE
INGHAM JACKSON LENAWEE
LIVINGSTON MACOMB MONROE
OAKLAND ST. CLAIR ST. JOSEPH
WASHTENAW WAYNE
$$
OHC003-039-051-069-123-125-137-161-171-232240-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN DEFIANCE FULTON
HENRY OTTAWA PAULDING
PUTNAM VAN WERT WILLIAMS
$$
LCZ422-423-460-LEZ142-444-LHZ443-464-232240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
DETROIT RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 342
VALID 232030Z - 232140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HART..05/23/11
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...DTX...CLE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 342
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC001-003-009-017-033-039-049-053-069-075-085-087-099-103-113-
131-151-169-179-181-183-232140-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD
CASS DE KALB ELKHART
FULTON GRANT HUNTINGTON
JAY KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE
MARSHALL MIAMI NOBLE
PULASKI STEUBEN WABASH
WELLS WHITE WHITLEY
$$
MIC023-025-049-059-063-065-075-087-091-093-099-115-125-147-149-
151-157-161-163-232140-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRANCH CALHOUN GENESEE
HILLSDALE HURON INGHAM
JACKSON LAPEER LENAWEE
LIVINGSTON MACOMB MONROE
OAKLAND ST. CLAIR ST. JOSEPH
SANILAC TUSCOLA WASHTENAW
WAYNE
$$
OHC003-039-051-063-069-095-123-125-137-143-147-161-171-173-
232140-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN DEFIANCE FULTON
HANCOCK HENRY LUCAS
OTTAWA PAULDING PUTNAM
SANDUSKY SENECA VAN WERT
WILLIAMS WOOD
$$
LCZ422-423-460-LEZ142-143-162-163-444-LHZ441-442-443-462-463-464-
232140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
DETROIT RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH
DETROIT RIVER LT. TO MAUMEE BAY OH TO RENO BEACH OH BEYOND 5NM
OFFSHORELINE TO US-CANADIAN BORDER
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 342
VALID 231935Z - 232040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HART..05/23/11
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...DTX...CLE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 342
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC001-003-009-017-033-039-049-053-069-075-085-087-099-103-113-
131-151-169-179-181-183-232040-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD
CASS DE KALB ELKHART
FULTON GRANT HUNTINGTON
JAY KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE
MARSHALL MIAMI NOBLE
PULASKI STEUBEN WABASH
WELLS WHITE WHITLEY
$$
MIC023-025-049-059-063-065-075-087-091-093-099-115-125-147-149-
151-157-161-163-232040-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRANCH CALHOUN GENESEE
HILLSDALE HURON INGHAM
JACKSON LAPEER LENAWEE
LIVINGSTON MACOMB MONROE
OAKLAND ST. CLAIR ST. JOSEPH
SANILAC TUSCOLA WASHTENAW
WAYNE
$$
OHC003-039-051-063-069-095-123-125-137-143-147-161-171-173-
232040-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN DEFIANCE FULTON
HANCOCK HENRY LUCAS
OTTAWA PAULDING PUTNAM
SANDUSKY SENECA VAN WERT
WILLIAMS WOOD
$$
LCZ422-423-460-LEZ142-143-162-163-444-LHZ441-442-443-462-463-464-
232040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
DETROIT RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH
DETROIT RIVER LT. TO MAUMEE BAY OH TO RENO BEACH OH BEYOND 5NM
OFFSHORELINE TO US-CANADIAN BORDER
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.