Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 350
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
945 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 945 PM UNTIL
400 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHWEST
OF CHICKASHA OKLAHOMA TO 55 MILES NORTHEAST OF PINE BLUFF
ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 345...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 348. WATCH NUMBER
345 348 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 945 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW
346...WW 349...
DISCUSSION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REINFORCED BY ONGOING CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO SAG SWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN OK...WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED ATOP THE COLD POOL IN ASSOCIATION WITH WAA AND A 35-40 KT
LLJ. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. FARTHER E INTO AR...MULTIPLE EARLIER
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION HAVE LEFT A SL0W-MOVING OUTFLOW ACROSS CENTRAL
AR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE TO FOCUS THE EWD MOVEMENT OF THE
CLUSTER ALONG THE AR/OK BORDER. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FORWARD PROPAGATION AND AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS...BUT
THE MAGNITUDE AND ERN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT ARE SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29025.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 350 SEVERE TSTM AR OK 240245Z - 240900Z
AXIS..45 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
35NW CHK/CHICKASHA OK/ - 55NE PBF/PINE BLUFF AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 40NM N/S /40W OKC - 46E LIT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29025.
REPLACES WW 345..OK TX
REPLACES WW 348..AR OK
LAT...LON 36119841 35389125 34089125 34819841
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 350 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 350
VALID 240845Z - 240900Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW MLC TO
25 NE CQB.
WW 350 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 240900Z.
..GUYER..05/24/11
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 350
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC033-047-131-240900-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD FRANKLIN SEBASTIAN
$$
OKC037-061-077-079-091-101-107-111-121-127-135-240900-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CREEK HASKELL LATIMER
LE FLORE MCINTOSH MUSKOGEE
OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE PITTSBURG
PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 350
VALID 240650Z - 240740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW MLC TO
25 NE CQB.
..GUYER..05/24/11
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 350
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-023-029-033-045-047-051-053-059-069-071-083-085-095-097-
105-113-115-117-119-125-127-131-141-145-147-149-240740-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS CLEBURNE CONWAY
CRAWFORD FAULKNER FRANKLIN
GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING
JEFFERSON JOHNSON LOGAN
LONOKE MONROE MONTGOMERY
PERRY POLK POPE
PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE
SCOTT SEBASTIAN VAN BUREN
WHITE WOODRUFF YELL
$$
OKC037-061-077-079-091-101-107-111-121-127-135-240740-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CREEK HASKELL LATIMER
LE FLORE MCINTOSH MUSKOGEE
OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE PITTSBURG
PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 350
VALID 240555Z - 240640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW MLC TO
25 NE CQB.
..GUYER..05/24/11
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 350
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-023-029-033-045-047-051-053-059-069-071-083-085-095-097-
105-113-115-117-119-125-127-131-141-145-147-149-240640-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS CLEBURNE CONWAY
CRAWFORD FAULKNER FRANKLIN
GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING
JEFFERSON JOHNSON LOGAN
LONOKE MONROE MONTGOMERY
PERRY POLK POPE
PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE
SCOTT SEBASTIAN VAN BUREN
WHITE WOODRUFF YELL
$$
OKC037-061-077-079-091-101-107-111-121-127-135-240640-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CREEK HASKELL LATIMER
LE FLORE MCINTOSH MUSKOGEE
OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE PITTSBURG
PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 350
VALID 240430Z - 240540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE FSI
TO 20 SW END.
..DIAL..05/24/11
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 350
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-023-029-033-045-047-051-053-059-069-071-083-085-095-097-
105-113-115-117-119-125-127-131-141-145-147-149-240540-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS CLEBURNE CONWAY
CRAWFORD FAULKNER FRANKLIN
GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING
JEFFERSON JOHNSON LOGAN
LONOKE MONROE MONTGOMERY
PERRY POLK POPE
PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE
SCOTT SEBASTIAN VAN BUREN
WHITE WOODRUFF YELL
$$
OKC017-027-037-051-061-063-073-077-079-081-083-087-091-101-107-
109-111-121-125-127-133-135-240540-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CANADIAN CLEVELAND CREEK
GRADY HASKELL HUGHES
KINGFISHER LATIMER LE FLORE
LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN
MCINTOSH MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE
OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE PITTSBURG
POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA SEMINOLE
SEQUOYAH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.