Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 412
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
810 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central Illinois
Central and Eastern Missouri
* Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 810 PM
until 100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A broken linear cluster of thunderstorms will gradually
move into the Watch area this evening. Some of the more intense
thunderstorms will be capable of a risk for large to very large hail
(1-2 inches in diameter) and severe gusts (60-75 mph). The severe
risk may linger into portions of central and east-central Missouri
into the early overnight hours.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west of
Columbia MO to 10 miles north northeast of Mattoon IL. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 409...WW 410...WW 411...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
31025.
...Smith
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 412 SEVERE TSTM IL MO 140110Z - 140600Z
AXIS..40 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
60W COU/COLUMBIA MO/ - 10NNE MTO/MATTOON IL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 35NM N/S /52W COU - 31ESE AXC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 31025.
LAT...LON 39399333 40188821 39028821 38249333
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 412 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 412
VALID 140330Z - 140440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE CDJ TO
25 WSW STL.
..SPC..06/14/24
ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 412
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC019-027-051-053-071-073-135-139-151-159-219-140440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE CALLAWAY COLE
COOPER FRANKLIN GASCONADE
MONITEAU MONTGOMERY OSAGE
PETTIS WARREN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
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