Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 353
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
650 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 650 AM UNTIL
200 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF RUSSELL KANSAS TO 10 MILES EAST OF EMPORIA KANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 351...WW 352...
DISCUSSION...AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE A GENERAL EASTWARD PROPAGATION ACROSS KS THIS
MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS LIKELY TO REMAIN ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY IN PROXIMITY TO A SOURCE REGION OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALOFT/AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SOME ADDITIONAL UPSCALE
GROWTH IS POSSIBLE AND DAMAGING WINDS COULD BECOME MORE A CONCERN AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS THROUGH THE MORNING AND STORMS BECOME MORE
SURFACE BASED WITH TIME.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025.
...GUYER/CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 353 SEVERE TSTM KS 241150Z - 241900Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
30WNW RSL/RUSSELL KS/ - 10E EMP/EMPORIA KS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /44ESE HLC - 71W BUM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27025.
LAT...LON 39889933 39209600 37459600 38159933
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 353 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 353
VALID 241545Z - 241640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W CNU TO
25 NNW HUT TO 20 WNW CNK.
..BROYLES..05/24/11
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...DDC...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 353
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC013-017-027-029-041-061-073-085-087-111-113-115-117-127-131-
143-149-157-161-169-177-197-201-241640-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CHASE CLAY
CLOUD DICKINSON GEARY
GREENWOOD JACKSON JEFFERSON
LYON MCPHERSON MARION
MARSHALL MORRIS NEMAHA
OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC
RILEY SALINE SHAWNEE
WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.