MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0921
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0918 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 353...
   
   VALID 241418Z - 241545Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 353
   CONTINUES.
   
   AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL
   WILL EXIST IN NRN KS. THE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP EWD INTO NE KS AND
   MAY AFFECT WRN MO BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE REMAINS
   POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM OF WW 353.
   
   A WELL-DEVELOPED BOWING LINE-SEGMENT IN NRN KS IS JUST AHEAD OF A
   PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE LINE
   IS LOCATED ON THE NWRN EDGE OF A POCKET OF MODERATE TO STRONG
   INSTABILITY WHERE MUCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 2000 TO
   3000 J/KG RANGE. THE LINE IS PRIMARILY ELEVATED BUT COULD HAVE AN
   ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS THE LINE MOVES ESEWD ALONG THE
   INSTABILITY GRADIENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE
   WSR-88 VWP IN TOPEKA HAS ABOUT 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND
   MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS
   MOST OF KS. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR A HAIL
   THREAT WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS WITHIN THE LINE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/24/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
   
   LAT...LON   39999868 39659551 39129430 38569381 37799411 37589460
               37659516 37809552 37899578 38369691 38939872 39999868