Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 351
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
235 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO
NORTHWEST KANSAS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING FROM 235 AM UNTIL 1000 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF BURLINGTON COLORADO TO 45 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
HILL CITY KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 350...
DISCUSSION...SCTD SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY STRENGTH THROUGH SUNRISE IN ZONE OF
WAA/MOISTURE INFLOW BENEATH INCREASING UPR DIFFLUENCE/ASCENT IN EXIT
REGION OF JET STREAM PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS NM. THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WITH SIZABLE ELEVATED CAPE MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SVR
HAIL DESPITE MODEST CLOUD LAYER SHEAR.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 20015.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 351 SEVERE TSTM CO KS 240735Z - 241500Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
30WNW ITR/BURLINGTON CO/ - 45ESE HLC/HILL CITY KS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /49SSE AKO - 55E HLC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..50 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 20015.
LAT...LON 40130280 39849905 38409905 38680280
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 351 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 351
VALID 241130Z - 241240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N GCK TO
40 NNE HLC.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 919
..GUYER..05/24/11
ATTN...WFO...GLD...DDC...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 351
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC051-101-135-147-163-165-171-195-241240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ELLIS LANE NESS
PHILLIPS ROOKS RUSH
SCOTT TREGO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 351
VALID 240850Z - 240940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..05/24/11
ATTN...WFO...GLD...DDC...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 351
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC017-063-125-240940-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE KIT CARSON YUMA
$$
KSC023-039-051-063-065-071-101-109-135-137-147-153-163-165-171-
179-181-193-195-199-203-240940-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR ELLIS
GOVE GRAHAM GREELEY
LANE LOGAN NESS
NORTON PHILLIPS RAWLINS
ROOKS RUSH SCOTT
SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS
TREGO WALLACE WICHITA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (<5%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.