Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 354
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
955 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
WESTERN VIRGINIA
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 955 AM UNTIL
500 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES WEST OF
BLUEFIELD WEST VIRGINIA TO 5 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF LYNCHBURG
VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 352...WW 353...
DISCUSSION...MCS CURRENTLY CRESTING THE APPALACHIANS IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES E OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER THIS MORNING. 12Z
RNK SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S...STORMS SHOULD BECOME FIRMLY ROOTED WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WHERE AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG. BELT OF 50+ KT WLY FLOW IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER
WILL ENHANCE FORWARD SPEED OF SYSTEM WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27040.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 354 SEVERE TSTM NC VA WV 241355Z - 242100Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
65W BLF/BLUEFIELD WV/ - 5SSE LYH/LYNCHBURG VA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /52NNW HMV - 3ENE LYH/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27040.
LAT...LON 38158237 38137916 36387916 36418237
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 354 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 354
VALID 241940Z - 242040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E JKL TO
25 SSW SHD.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 931.
..GRAMS..05/24/11
ATTN...WFO...RNK...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 354
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC005-009-033-157-169-171-189-193-197-242040-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGHANY ASHE CASWELL
ROCKINGHAM STOKES SURRY
WATAUGA WILKES YADKIN
$$
VAC005-009-011-019-021-023-029-031-035-037-045-063-067-071-077-
083-089-121-141-143-155-161-163-173-185-197-515-530-580-590-640-
678-680-690-750-770-775-242040-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGHANY AMHERST APPOMATTOX
BEDFORD BLAND BOTETOURT
BUCKINGHAM CAMPBELL CARROLL
CHARLOTTE CRAIG FLOYD
FRANKLIN GILES GRAYSON
HALIFAX HENRY MONTGOMERY
PATRICK PITTSYLVANIA PULASKI
ROANOKE ROCKBRIDGE SMYTH
TAZEWELL WYTHE
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD BUENA VISTA COVINGTON
DANVILLE GALAX LEXINGTON
LYNCHBURG MARTINSVILLE RADFORD
ROANOKE SALEM
$$
WVC055-063-089-242040-
WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MERCER MONROE SUMMERS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 354
VALID 241820Z - 241940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GRAMS..05/24/11
ATTN...WFO...RNK...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 354
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC005-009-033-157-169-171-189-193-197-241940-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGHANY ASHE CASWELL
ROCKINGHAM STOKES SURRY
WATAUGA WILKES YADKIN
$$
VAC005-009-011-017-019-021-023-029-031-035-037-045-063-067-071-
077-083-089-121-141-143-155-161-163-173-185-197-515-530-580-590-
640-678-680-690-750-770-775-241940-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGHANY AMHERST APPOMATTOX
BATH BEDFORD BLAND
BOTETOURT BUCKINGHAM CAMPBELL
CARROLL CHARLOTTE CRAIG
FLOYD FRANKLIN GILES
GRAYSON HALIFAX HENRY
MONTGOMERY PATRICK PITTSYLVANIA
PULASKI ROANOKE ROCKBRIDGE
SMYTH TAZEWELL WYTHE
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD BUENA VISTA COVINGTON
DANVILLE GALAX LEXINGTON
LYNCHBURG MARTINSVILLE RADFORD
ROANOKE SALEM
$$
WVC025-055-063-089-241940-
WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GREENBRIER MERCER MONROE
SUMMERS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.