Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 332
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
535 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN INDIANA
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
LAKE MICHIGAN
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 535 PM
UNTIL 100 AM EDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF MUSKEGON MICHIGAN TO 35 MILES EAST OF LAFAYETTE
INDIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 322...WW 323...WW
324...WW 325...WW 326...WW 327...WW 328...WW 329...WW 330...WW
331...
DISCUSSION...LINEAR MCS OVER NE IL/NW INDIANA WILL LIKELY PERSIST
WILL MOVING EWD INTO NRN INDIANA AND SW LOWER MI THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF
2000-3000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A RISK FOR EMBEDDED BOWS AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THE
PRIMARILY LINEAR NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...AND LACK OF PRE-EXISTING
SURFACE BOUNDARIES...SUGGEST THAT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26030.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 332 SEVERE TSTM IN MI LM 222135Z - 230500Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
10NNE MKG/MUSKEGON MI/ - 35E LAF/LAFAYETTE IN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /9NNW MKG - 37N IND/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.
LAT...LON 43298476 40408493 40408759 43298755
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 332 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 332
VALID 230400Z - 230540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW JXN TO
35 ESE SBN TO 20 ESE VPZ TO 10 NNE VPZ TO 25 WSW BEH TO 35 N BEH
TO 10 N MKG.
..DIAL..05/23/11
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...GRR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 332
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC039-087-091-141-230540-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ELKHART LAGRANGE LA PORTE
ST. JOSEPH
$$
MIC005-015-021-023-025-027-037-045-065-067-075-077-081-121-139-
149-159-230540-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGAN BARRY BERRIEN
BRANCH CALHOUN CASS
CLINTON EATON INGHAM
IONIA JACKSON KALAMAZOO
KENT MUSKEGON OTTAWA
ST. JOSEPH VAN BUREN
$$
LMZ043-046-080-844-845-846-878-230540-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI
LAKE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID-LINE OF LAKE.
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI
SOUTH HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 332
VALID 230240Z - 230340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GARNER..05/23/11
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...GRR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 332
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC001-003-009-017-033-039-049-053-069-075-085-087-091-099-103-
113-131-141-149-151-169-179-181-183-230340-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD
CASS DE KALB ELKHART
FULTON GRANT HUNTINGTON
JAY KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE
LA PORTE MARSHALL MIAMI
NOBLE PULASKI ST. JOSEPH
STARKE STEUBEN WABASH
WELLS WHITE WHITLEY
$$
MIC005-015-021-023-025-027-037-045-059-065-067-075-077-081-121-
139-149-159-230340-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGAN BARRY BERRIEN
BRANCH CALHOUN CASS
CLINTON EATON HILLSDALE
INGHAM IONIA JACKSON
KALAMAZOO KENT MUSKEGON
OTTAWA ST. JOSEPH VAN BUREN
$$
LMZ043-046-080-844-845-846-847-872-874-876-878-230340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI
LAKE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID-LINE OF LAKE.
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI
SOUTH HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI
GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 332
VALID 230115Z - 230240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..COHEN..05/23/11
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...GRR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 332
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC001-003-009-017-033-039-049-053-069-075-085-087-091-099-103-
113-131-141-149-151-169-179-181-183-230240-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD
CASS DE KALB ELKHART
FULTON GRANT HUNTINGTON
JAY KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE
LA PORTE MARSHALL MIAMI
NOBLE PULASKI ST. JOSEPH
STARKE STEUBEN WABASH
WELLS WHITE WHITLEY
$$
MIC005-015-021-023-025-027-037-045-059-065-067-075-077-081-121-
139-149-159-230240-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGAN BARRY BERRIEN
BRANCH CALHOUN CASS
CLINTON EATON HILLSDALE
INGHAM IONIA JACKSON
KALAMAZOO KENT MUSKEGON
OTTAWA ST. JOSEPH VAN BUREN
$$
LMZ043-046-080-844-845-846-847-872-874-876-878-230240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI
LAKE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID-LINE OF LAKE.
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI
SOUTH HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI
GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 332
VALID 230040Z - 230140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 872
..COHEN..05/23/11
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...GRR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 332
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC001-003-009-015-017-023-033-039-045-049-053-067-069-075-085-
087-091-099-103-107-113-131-141-149-151-157-159-165-169-171-179-
181-183-230140-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD
CARROLL CASS CLINTON
DE KALB ELKHART FOUNTAIN
FULTON GRANT HOWARD
HUNTINGTON JAY KOSCIUSKO
LAGRANGE LA PORTE MARSHALL
MIAMI MONTGOMERY NOBLE
PULASKI ST. JOSEPH STARKE
STEUBEN TIPPECANOE TIPTON
VERMILLION WABASH WARREN
WELLS WHITE WHITLEY
$$
MIC005-015-021-023-025-027-037-045-059-065-067-075-077-081-121-
139-149-159-230140-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGAN BARRY BERRIEN
BRANCH CALHOUN CASS
CLINTON EATON HILLSDALE
INGHAM IONIA JACKSON
KALAMAZOO KENT MUSKEGON
OTTAWA ST. JOSEPH VAN BUREN
$$
LMZ043-046-080-844-845-846-847-872-874-876-878-230140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI
LAKE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID-LINE OF LAKE.
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI
SOUTH HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI
GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 332
VALID 222340Z - 230040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..COHEN..05/22/11
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...GRR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 332
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC001-003-009-015-017-023-033-039-045-049-053-067-069-075-085-
087-091-099-103-107-113-131-141-149-151-157-159-165-169-171-179-
181-183-230040-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD
CARROLL CASS CLINTON
DE KALB ELKHART FOUNTAIN
FULTON GRANT HOWARD
HUNTINGTON JAY KOSCIUSKO
LAGRANGE LA PORTE MARSHALL
MIAMI MONTGOMERY NOBLE
PULASKI ST. JOSEPH STARKE
STEUBEN TIPPECANOE TIPTON
VERMILLION WABASH WARREN
WELLS WHITE WHITLEY
$$
MIC005-015-021-023-025-027-037-045-059-065-067-075-077-081-121-
139-149-159-230040-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGAN BARRY BERRIEN
BRANCH CALHOUN CASS
CLINTON EATON HILLSDALE
INGHAM IONIA JACKSON
KALAMAZOO KENT MUSKEGON
OTTAWA ST. JOSEPH VAN BUREN
$$
LMZ043-046-080-844-845-846-847-872-874-876-878-230040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI
LAKE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID-LINE OF LAKE.
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI
SOUTH HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI
GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 332
VALID 222215Z - 222340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..COHEN..05/22/11
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...GRR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 332
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC001-003-009-015-017-023-033-039-045-049-053-067-069-075-085-
087-091-099-103-107-113-131-141-149-151-157-159-165-169-171-179-
181-183-222340-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD
CARROLL CASS CLINTON
DE KALB ELKHART FOUNTAIN
FULTON GRANT HOWARD
HUNTINGTON JAY KOSCIUSKO
LAGRANGE LA PORTE MARSHALL
MIAMI MONTGOMERY NOBLE
PULASKI ST. JOSEPH STARKE
STEUBEN TIPPECANOE TIPTON
VERMILLION WABASH WARREN
WELLS WHITE WHITLEY
$$
MIC005-015-021-023-025-027-037-045-059-065-067-075-077-081-121-
139-149-159-222340-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGAN BARRY BERRIEN
BRANCH CALHOUN CASS
CLINTON EATON HILLSDALE
INGHAM IONIA JACKSON
KALAMAZOO KENT MUSKEGON
OTTAWA ST. JOSEPH VAN BUREN
$$
LMZ043-046-080-844-845-846-847-872-874-876-878-222340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI
LAKE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID-LINE OF LAKE.
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI
SOUTH HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI
GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.