Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 331
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
345 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
LAKE SUPERIOR
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
KENNEDY WISCONSIN TO 25 MILES SOUTH OF MARQUETTE MICHIGAN. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 322...WW 323...WW
324...WW 325...WW 326...WW 327...WW 328...WW 329...WW 330...
DISCUSSION...NWD/NWWD AIR MASS RECOVERY CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF CNTRL MN DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE. RESULTANT POCKETS OF MLCAPE
OF 500-1000 J/KG COUPLED WITH VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND A
COUPLE TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 331 TORNADO MI MN WI LS 222045Z - 230400Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
45SW ASX/KENNEDY WI/ - 25S MQT/MARQUETTE MI/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /50SSE DLH - 13SW SAW/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 46869158 46958756 45368756 45279158
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 331 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 331
VALID 230240Z - 230340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE RHI TO
15 WSW IMT TO 10 S IWD TO 25 NNW IWD.
..GARNER..05/23/11
ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 331
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC013-043-053-061-071-103-109-131-230340-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARAGA DICKINSON GOGEBIC
HOUGHTON IRON MARQUETTE
MENOMINEE ONTONAGON
$$
LSZ247-248-230340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
PORTAGE LAKE TO HURON ISLAND MI TO LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE
CANAL TO HURON ISLANDS MI INCLUDING KEWEENAW AND HURON BAYS
HURON ISLANDS TO MARQUETTE MI
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 331
VALID 230120Z - 230240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S RHI TO
35 NNW IWD.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 873
..COHEN..05/23/11
ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 331
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC013-043-053-061-071-103-109-131-230240-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARAGA DICKINSON GOGEBIC
HOUGHTON IRON MARQUETTE
MENOMINEE ONTONAGON
$$
LSZ247-248-230240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
PORTAGE LAKE TO HURON ISLAND MI TO LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE
CANAL TO HURON ISLANDS MI INCLUDING KEWEENAW AND HURON BAYS
HURON ISLANDS TO MARQUETTE MI
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 331
VALID 230040Z - 230140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..COHEN..05/23/11
ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 331
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC013-043-053-061-071-103-109-131-230140-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARAGA DICKINSON GOGEBIC
HOUGHTON IRON MARQUETTE
MENOMINEE ONTONAGON
$$
WIC003-007-051-099-113-230140-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLAND BAYFIELD IRON
PRICE SAWYER
$$
LSZ247-248-230140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
PORTAGE LAKE TO HURON ISLAND MI TO LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE
CANAL TO HURON ISLANDS MI INCLUDING KEWEENAW AND HURON BAYS
HURON ISLANDS TO MARQUETTE MI
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 331
VALID 222340Z - 230040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..COHEN..05/22/11
ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 331
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC013-043-053-061-071-103-109-131-230040-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARAGA DICKINSON GOGEBIC
HOUGHTON IRON MARQUETTE
MENOMINEE ONTONAGON
$$
MNC115-230040-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
PINE
$$
WIC003-007-013-031-051-099-113-129-230040-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLAND BAYFIELD BURNETT
DOUGLAS IRON PRICE
SAWYER WASHBURN
$$
LSZ247-248-230040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
PORTAGE LAKE TO HURON ISLAND MI TO LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE
CANAL TO HURON ISLANDS MI INCLUDING KEWEENAW AND HURON BAYS
HURON ISLANDS TO MARQUETTE MI
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 331
VALID 222220Z - 222340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..COHEN..05/22/11
ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 331
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC013-043-053-061-071-103-109-131-222340-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARAGA DICKINSON GOGEBIC
HOUGHTON IRON MARQUETTE
MENOMINEE ONTONAGON
$$
MNC115-222340-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
PINE
$$
WIC003-007-013-031-051-099-113-129-222340-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLAND BAYFIELD BURNETT
DOUGLAS IRON PRICE
SAWYER WASHBURN
$$
LSZ247-248-222340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
PORTAGE LAKE TO HURON ISLAND MI TO LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE
CANAL TO HURON ISLANDS MI INCLUDING KEWEENAW AND HURON BAYS
HURON ISLANDS TO MARQUETTE MI
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 331
VALID 222125Z - 222240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..COHEN..05/22/11
ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 331
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC013-043-053-061-071-103-109-131-222240-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARAGA DICKINSON GOGEBIC
HOUGHTON IRON MARQUETTE
MENOMINEE ONTONAGON
$$
MNC115-222240-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
PINE
$$
WIC003-007-013-031-051-099-113-129-222240-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLAND BAYFIELD BURNETT
DOUGLAS IRON PRICE
SAWYER WASHBURN
$$
LSZ247-248-222240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
PORTAGE LAKE TO HURON ISLAND MI TO LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE
CANAL TO HURON ISLANDS MI INCLUDING KEWEENAW AND HURON BAYS
HURON ISLANDS TO MARQUETTE MI
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.