Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 531
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
200 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northwestern Iowa
Southwestern Minnesota
Northeastern Nebraska
East-central and southeastern South Dakota
* Effective this Sunday morning from 200 AM until 800 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 90 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A well-organized, bowing thunderstorm complex, with a
history of numerous, measured, significant severe gusts (65+ kt) in
western and central SD, should continue to pose a threat for severe
wind as it moves through much of the watch area through dawn.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west of
Mitchell SD to 25 miles north northeast of Spencer IA. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 527...WW 528...WW
529...WW 530...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 80 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
29050.
...Edwards
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 531
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
200 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northwestern Iowa
Southwestern Minnesota
Northeastern Nebraska
East-central and southeastern South Dakota
* Effective this Sunday morning from 200 AM until 800 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 90 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A well-organized, bowing thunderstorm complex, with a
history of numerous, measured, significant severe gusts (65+ kt) in
western and central SD, should continue to pose a threat for severe
wind as it moves through much of the watch area through dawn.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west of
Mitchell SD to 25 miles north northeast of Spencer IA. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 527...WW 528...WW
529...WW 530...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 80 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
29050.
...Edwards
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 531 SEVERE TSTM IA MN NE SD 140700Z - 141300Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
60W MHE/MITCHELL SD/ - 25NNE SPW/SPENCER IA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM N/S /56SE PIR - 58S RWF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..80 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29050.
LAT...LON 44999923 44739496 42279496 42539923
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 531 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 531
VALID 141130Z - 141240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S 9V9 TO
45 NNE ONL TO 20 ESE MHE TO 20 SSW BKX TO 35 SSE RWF.
..BROYLES..07/14/24
ATTN...WFO...FSD...MPX...LBF...OAX...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 531
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC021-035-041-059-093-119-141-143-149-167-193-141240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY
DICKINSON IDA LYON
O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH
SIOUX WOODBURY
$$
MNC033-063-101-105-117-133-141240-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COTTONWOOD JACKSON MURRAY
NOBLES PIPESTONE ROCK
$$
NEC015-027-043-051-089-107-141240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOYD CEDAR DAKOTA
DIXON HOLT KNOX
$$
SDC009-027-067-083-087-099-101-125-127-135-141240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BON HOMME CLAY HUTCHINSON
LINCOLN MCCOOK MINNEHAHA
MOODY TURNER UNION
YANKTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 531
VALID 140940Z - 141040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..07/14/24
ATTN...WFO...FSD...MPX...LBF...OAX...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 531
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC021-035-041-059-093-119-141-143-149-167-193-141040-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY
DICKINSON IDA LYON
O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH
SIOUX WOODBURY
$$
MNC023-033-063-073-081-083-101-105-117-127-133-173-141040-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHIPPEWA COTTONWOOD JACKSON
LAC QUI PARLE LINCOLN LYON
MURRAY NOBLES PIPESTONE
REDWOOD ROCK YELLOW MEDICINE
$$
NEC015-027-043-051-089-107-141040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOYD CEDAR DAKOTA
DIXON HOLT KNOX
$$
SDC003-005-009-011-015-023-025-027-029-035-039-043-051-053-057-
061-067-073-077-079-083-087-097-099-101-111-115-125-127-135-
141040-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORA BEADLE BON HOMME
BROOKINGS BRULE CHARLES MIX
CLARK CLAY CODINGTON
DAVISON DEUEL DOUGLAS
GRANT GREGORY HAMLIN
HANSON HUTCHINSON JERAULD
KINGSBURY LAKE LINCOLN
MCCOOK MINER MINNEHAHA
MOODY SANBORN SPINK
TURNER UNION YANKTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 531
VALID 140730Z - 140840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..07/14/24
ATTN...WFO...FSD...MPX...LBF...OAX...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 531
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC021-035-041-059-093-119-141-143-149-167-193-140840-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY
DICKINSON IDA LYON
O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH
SIOUX WOODBURY
$$
MNC023-033-063-073-081-083-101-105-117-127-133-173-140840-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHIPPEWA COTTONWOOD JACKSON
LAC QUI PARLE LINCOLN LYON
MURRAY NOBLES PIPESTONE
REDWOOD ROCK YELLOW MEDICINE
$$
NEC015-027-043-051-089-107-140840-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOYD CEDAR DAKOTA
DIXON HOLT KNOX
$$
SDC003-005-009-011-015-023-025-027-029-035-039-043-051-053-057-
061-067-073-077-079-083-087-097-099-101-111-115-125-127-135-
140840-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORA BEADLE BON HOMME
BROOKINGS BRULE CHARLES MIX
CLARK CLAY CODINGTON
DAVISON DEUEL DOUGLAS
GRANT GREGORY HAMLIN
HANSON HUTCHINSON JERAULD
KINGSBURY LAKE LINCOLN
MCCOOK MINER MINNEHAHA
MOODY SANBORN SPINK
TURNER UNION YANKTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (40%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.