Storm Prediction Center Tornado Watch 517

Hazard	Tornadoes	EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood	High	Low

Severe Wind	65 kt+ Wind
Moderate	Low

Severe Hail	2"+ Hail
Very Low	Very Low

Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

   SEL7

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 517
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1205 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Upstate New York
     Northern and Central Pennsylvania
     Vermont
     Lake Erie
     Lake Ontario

   * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1205 PM
     until 900 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes likely
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

   SUMMARY...A moist air mass along and south of a warm front, and
   strong atmospheric winds associated with the remnants of Beryl, will
   influence storms capable of tornadoes and wind damage this afternoon
   through early/mid-evening.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles
   north and south of a line from 25 miles west southwest of Bradford
   PA to 25 miles south southeast of Burlington VT. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
   storm motion vector 24025.

   ...Guyer

Hazard	Tornadoes	EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood	High	Low

Severe Wind	65 kt+ Wind
Moderate	Low

Severe Hail	2"+ Hail
Very Low	Very Low

   SEL7

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 517
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1205 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Upstate New York
     Northern and Central Pennsylvania
     Vermont
     Lake Erie
     Lake Ontario

   * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1205 PM
     until 900 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes likely
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

   SUMMARY...A moist air mass along and south of a warm front, and
   strong atmospheric winds associated with the remnants of Beryl, will
   influence storms capable of tornadoes and wind damage this afternoon
   through early/mid-evening.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles
   north and south of a line from 25 miles west southwest of Bradford
   PA to 25 miles south southeast of Burlington VT. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
   storm motion vector 24025.

   ...Guyer

Hazard	Tornadoes	EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood	High	Low

Severe Wind	65 kt+ Wind
Moderate	Low

Severe Hail	2"+ Hail
Very Low	Very Low

Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

   WOUS64 KWNS 101603
   WOU7

   BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 517
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1205 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2024

   TORNADO WATCH 517 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE
    FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

   NYC001-003-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-023-025-029-031-033-035-
   037-041-043-045-049-051-053-055-057-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-
   083-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-107-109-113-115-117-121-123-
   110100-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0517.240710T1605Z-240711T0100Z/

   NY 
   .    NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

   ALBANY               ALLEGANY            BROOME              
   CATTARAUGUS          CAYUGA              CHAUTAUQUA          
   CHEMUNG              CHENANGO            CLINTON             
   CORTLAND             DELAWARE            ERIE                
   ESSEX                FRANKLIN            FULTON              
   GENESEE              HAMILTON            HERKIMER            
   JEFFERSON            LEWIS               LIVINGSTON          
   MADISON              MONROE              MONTGOMERY          
   NIAGARA              ONEIDA              ONONDAGA            
   ONTARIO              ORLEANS             OSWEGO              
   OTSEGO               RENSSELAER          SARATOGA            
   SCHENECTADY          SCHOHARIE           SCHUYLER            
   SENECA               ST. LAWRENCE        STEUBEN             
   TIOGA                TOMPKINS            WARREN              
   WASHINGTON           WAYNE               WYOMING             
   YATES                


   PAC013-015-021-023-027-033-035-037-043-047-053-061-065-067-069-
   079-081-083-087-093-097-099-105-107-109-113-115-117-119-123-127-
   131-110100-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0517.240710T1605Z-240711T0100Z/

   PA 
   .    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

   BLAIR                BRADFORD            CAMBRIA             
   CAMERON              CENTRE              CLEARFIELD          
   CLINTON              COLUMBIA            DAUPHIN             
   ELK                  FOREST              HUNTINGDON          
   JEFFERSON            JUNIATA             LACKAWANNA          
   LUZERNE              LYCOMING            MCKEAN              
   MIFFLIN              MONTOUR             NORTHUMBERLAND      
   PERRY                POTTER              SCHUYLKILL          
   SNYDER               SULLIVAN            SUSQUEHANNA         
   TIOGA                UNION               WARREN              
   WAYNE                WYOMING             


   VTC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-027-110100-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0517.240710T1605Z-240711T0100Z/

   VT 
   .    VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

   ADDISON              CALEDONIA           CHITTENDEN          
   ESSEX                FRANKLIN            GRAND ISLE          
   LAMOILLE             ORANGE              ORLEANS             
   RUTLAND              WASHINGTON          WINDSOR             


   LEZ020-040-041-061-LOZ030-042-043-044-045-062-063-064-065-SLZ022-
   024-110100-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0517.240710T1605Z-240711T0100Z/

   CW 

   .    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

   UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR 

   RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK NY 

   DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO NY 

   RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY EXTENDING FROM 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
   US-CANADIAN BORDER 

   LOWER NIAGARA RIVER 

   NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY 

   HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY 

   SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY 

   MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER 

   NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
   US-CANADIAN BORDER 

   HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
   US-CANADIAN BORDER 

   SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
   US-CANADIAN BORDER 

   MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE
   TO US-CANADIAN BORDER 

   ST. LAWRENCE RIVER ABOVE OGDENSBURG NY 

   ST. LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO ST. REGIS NY 

   ATTN...WFO...ALY...BUF...BTV...BGM...CTP...PBZ...

Hazard	Tornadoes	EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood	High	Low

Severe Wind	65 kt+ Wind
Moderate	Low

Severe Hail	2"+ Hail
Very Low	Very Low

Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

   SAW7 
   WW 517 TORNADO NY PA VT LE LO 101605Z - 110100Z
   AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
   25WSW BFD/BRADFORD PA/ - 25SSE BTV/BURLINGTON VT/
   ..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM N/S /32S JHW - 17WSW MPV/
   HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..0.5 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
   MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.

   LAT...LON 42967908 45447296 42837296 40367908

   THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
   FOR WOU7.

Watch 517 Status Report Messages:

STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 517

VALID 102310Z - 110040Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE AOO
TO 25 WNW IPT TO 15 SW ITH TO 35 ENE ART TO 25 WNW BTV TO 25 ESE
EFK TO 35 NNE BML.

..LYONS..07/10/24

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BUF...BGM...BTV...CTP...PBZ...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WT 517 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

NYC001-007-017-023-025-031-035-041-043-049-053-057-065-067-077-
083-091-093-095-107-113-115-110040-

NY 
.    NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALBANY		     BROOME		 CHENANGO	     
CORTLAND	     DELAWARE		 ESSEX		     
FULTON		     HAMILTON		 HERKIMER	     
LEWIS		     MADISON		 MONTGOMERY	     
ONEIDA		     ONONDAGA		 OTSEGO 	     
RENSSELAER	     SARATOGA		 SCHENECTADY	     
SCHOHARIE	     TIOGA		 WARREN 	     
WASHINGTON	     
$$


PAC015-037-043-067-069-079-081-087-093-097-099-107-109-113-115-
117-119-127-131-110040-

PA 
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BRADFORD	     COLUMBIA		 DAUPHIN	     
JUNIATA 	     LACKAWANNA 	 LUZERNE	     
LYCOMING	     MIFFLIN		 MONTOUR	     
NORTHUMBERLAND	     PERRY		 SCHUYLKILL	     
SNYDER		     SULLIVAN		 SUSQUEHANNA	     
TIOGA		     UNION		 WAYNE		     
WYOMING 	     
$$


VTC001-005-007-009-015-017-021-023-027-110040-

VT 
.    VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADDISON 	     CALEDONIA		 CHITTENDEN	     
ESSEX		     LAMOILLE		 ORANGE 	     
RUTLAND 	     WASHINGTON 	 WINDSOR	     
$$


LOZ030-110040-

CW 

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

LOWER NIAGARA RIVER 

$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 517

VALID 102130Z - 102240Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE AOO TO
40 S ROC TO 35 W ART.

..LYONS..07/10/24

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BUF...BGM...BTV...CTP...PBZ...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WT 517 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

NYC001-007-011-015-017-019-023-025-031-033-035-041-043-045-049-
053-057-065-067-075-077-083-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-107-109-
113-115-123-102240-

NY 
.    NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALBANY		     BROOME		 CAYUGA 	     
CHEMUNG 	     CHENANGO		 CLINTON	     
CORTLAND	     DELAWARE		 ESSEX		     
FRANKLIN	     FULTON		 HAMILTON	     
HERKIMER	     JEFFERSON		 LEWIS		     
MADISON 	     MONTGOMERY 	 ONEIDA 	     
ONONDAGA	     OSWEGO		 OTSEGO 	     
RENSSELAER	     ST. LAWRENCE	 SARATOGA	     
SCHENECTADY	     SCHOHARIE		 SCHUYLER	     
SENECA		     STEUBEN		 TIOGA		     
TOMPKINS	     WARREN		 WASHINGTON	     
YATES		     
$$


PAC015-027-035-037-043-061-067-069-079-081-087-093-097-099-107-
109-113-115-117-119-127-131-102240-

PA 
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BRADFORD	     CENTRE		 CLINTON	     
COLUMBIA	     DAUPHIN		 HUNTINGDON	     
JUNIATA 	     LACKAWANNA 	 LUZERNE	     
LYCOMING	     MIFFLIN		 MONTOUR	     
NORTHUMBERLAND	     PERRY		 SCHUYLKILL	     
SNYDER		     SULLIVAN		 SUSQUEHANNA	     
TIOGA		     UNION		 WAYNE		     
WYOMING 	     
$$


VTC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-027-102240-

VT 
.    VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADDISON 	     CALEDONIA		 CHITTENDEN	     
ESSEX		     FRANKLIN		 GRAND ISLE	     
LAMOILLE	     ORANGE		 ORLEANS	     
RUTLAND 	     WASHINGTON 	 WINDSOR	     
$$


LOZ030-044-045-064-065-SLZ022-024-102240-

CW 

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

LOWER NIAGARA RIVER 

SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY 

MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER 

SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER 

MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE
TO US-CANADIAN BORDER 

ST. LAWRENCE RIVER ABOVE OGDENSBURG NY 

ST. LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO ST. REGIS NY 

$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 517

VALID 102020Z - 102140Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 WNW AOO TO
30 NNW UNV TO 25 SSE BUF TO 40 NNW BUF.

..LYONS..07/10/24

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BUF...BGM...BTV...CTP...PBZ...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WT 517 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

NYC001-003-007-011-015-017-019-023-025-031-033-035-037-041-043-
045-049-051-053-055-057-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-083-089-091-
093-095-097-099-101-107-109-113-115-117-121-123-102140-

NY 
.    NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALBANY		     ALLEGANY		 BROOME 	     
CAYUGA		     CHEMUNG		 CHENANGO	     
CLINTON 	     CORTLAND		 DELAWARE	     
ESSEX		     FRANKLIN		 FULTON 	     
GENESEE 	     HAMILTON		 HERKIMER	     
JEFFERSON	     LEWIS		 LIVINGSTON	     
MADISON 	     MONROE		 MONTGOMERY	     
NIAGARA 	     ONEIDA		 ONONDAGA	     
ONTARIO 	     ORLEANS		 OSWEGO 	     
OTSEGO		     RENSSELAER 	 ST. LAWRENCE	     
SARATOGA	     SCHENECTADY	 SCHOHARIE	     
SCHUYLER	     SENECA		 STEUBEN	     
TIOGA		     TOMPKINS		 WARREN 	     
WASHINGTON	     WAYNE		 WYOMING	     
YATES		     
$$


PAC013-015-027-035-037-043-061-067-069-079-081-087-093-097-099-
105-107-109-113-115-117-119-127-131-102140-

PA 
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BLAIR		     BRADFORD		 CENTRE 	     
CLINTON 	     COLUMBIA		 DAUPHIN	     
HUNTINGDON	     JUNIATA		 LACKAWANNA	     
LUZERNE 	     LYCOMING		 MIFFLIN	     
MONTOUR 	     NORTHUMBERLAND	 PERRY		     
POTTER		     SCHUYLKILL 	 SNYDER 	     
SULLIVAN	     SUSQUEHANNA	 TIOGA		     
UNION		     WAYNE		 WYOMING	     
$$


VTC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-027-102140-

VT 
.    VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADDISON 	     CALEDONIA		 CHITTENDEN	     
ESSEX		     FRANKLIN		 GRAND ISLE	     
LAMOILLE	     ORANGE		 ORLEANS	     
RUTLAND 	     WASHINGTON 	 WINDSOR	     
$$


LOZ030-042-043-044-045-062-063-064-065-SLZ022-024-102140-

CW 

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

LOWER NIAGARA RIVER 

NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY 

HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY 

SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY 

MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER 

NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER 

HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER 

SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER 

MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE
TO US-CANADIAN BORDER 

ST. LAWRENCE RIVER ABOVE OGDENSBURG NY 

ST. LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO ST. REGIS NY 

$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 517

VALID 101900Z - 102040Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W AOO TO
30 ESE DUJ TO 30 ENE DUJ TO 20 SSE BFD TO 10 SSW BFD TO 20 W BFD
TO 25 NNE FKL.

..LYONS..07/10/24

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BUF...BGM...BTV...CTP...PBZ...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WT 517 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

NYC001-003-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-023-025-029-031-033-035-
037-041-043-045-049-051-053-055-057-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-
083-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-107-109-113-115-117-121-123-
102040-

NY 
.    NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALBANY		     ALLEGANY		 BROOME 	     
CATTARAUGUS	     CAYUGA		 CHAUTAUQUA	     
CHEMUNG 	     CHENANGO		 CLINTON	     
CORTLAND	     DELAWARE		 ERIE		     
ESSEX		     FRANKLIN		 FULTON 	     
GENESEE 	     HAMILTON		 HERKIMER	     
JEFFERSON	     LEWIS		 LIVINGSTON	     
MADISON 	     MONROE		 MONTGOMERY	     
NIAGARA 	     ONEIDA		 ONONDAGA	     
ONTARIO 	     ORLEANS		 OSWEGO 	     
OTSEGO		     RENSSELAER 	 ST. LAWRENCE	     
SARATOGA	     SCHENECTADY	 SCHOHARIE	     
SCHUYLER	     SENECA		 STEUBEN	     
TIOGA		     TOMPKINS		 WARREN 	     
WASHINGTON	     WAYNE		 WYOMING	     
YATES		     
$$


PAC013-015-023-027-035-037-043-061-067-069-079-081-083-087-093-
097-099-105-107-109-113-115-117-119-123-127-131-102040-

PA 
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BLAIR		     BRADFORD		 CAMERON	     
CENTRE		     CLINTON		 COLUMBIA	     
DAUPHIN 	     HUNTINGDON 	 JUNIATA	     
LACKAWANNA	     LUZERNE		 LYCOMING	     
MCKEAN		     MIFFLIN		 MONTOUR	     
NORTHUMBERLAND	     PERRY		 POTTER 	     
SCHUYLKILL	     SNYDER		 SULLIVAN	     
SUSQUEHANNA	     TIOGA		 UNION		     
WARREN		     WAYNE		 WYOMING	     
$$


VTC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-027-102040-

VT 
.    VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADDISON 	     CALEDONIA		 CHITTENDEN	     
ESSEX		     FRANKLIN		 GRAND ISLE	     
LAMOILLE	     ORANGE		 ORLEANS	     
RUTLAND 	     WASHINGTON 	 WINDSOR	     
$$


LEZ020-040-041-061-LOZ030-042-043-044-045-062-063-064-065-SLZ022-
024-102040-

CW 

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

LOWER NIAGARA RIVER 

NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY 

HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY 

SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY 

MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER 

NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER 

HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER 

SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER 

MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE
TO US-CANADIAN BORDER 

UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR 

RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK NY 

DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO NY 

RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY EXTENDING FROM 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER 

ST. LAWRENCE RIVER ABOVE OGDENSBURG NY 

ST. LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO ST. REGIS NY 

$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

Hazard	Tornadoes	EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood	High	Low

Severe Wind	65 kt+ Wind
Moderate	Low

Severe Hail	2"+ Hail
Very Low	Very Low

Note: Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes	High (70%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes	Low (20%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events	Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots	Low (10%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events	Low (<5%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches	Low (<5%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

Mod (60%)

For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.