Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 419
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
435 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and Eastern Kansas
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 435 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to
develop this afternoon into the evening. The stronger thunderstorms
will mainly be capable of severe gusts (60-80 mph). Isolated large
hail may also accompany the more intense thunderstorm cores as this
activity moves east into a more unstable airmass over eastern parts
of Kansas towards the early evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northeast of
Manhattan KS to 40 miles south of Wichita KS. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 417...WW 418...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
21030.
...Smith
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 419 SEVERE TSTM KS 152135Z - 160300Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45NE MHK/MANHATTAN KS/ - 40S ICT/WICHITA KS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /37S PWE - 41S ICT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21030.
LAT...LON 39589504 37079643 37079843 39589711
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 419 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 419
VALID 160110Z - 160240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW HUT
TO 25 ESE EMP TO 20 SW FNB.
..DEAN..06/16/24
ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...TOP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 419
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC005-015-035-045-073-077-085-087-095-111-139-173-177-191-
160240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON BUTLER COWLEY
DOUGLAS GREENWOOD HARPER
JACKSON JEFFERSON KINGMAN
LYON OSAGE SEDGWICK
SHAWNEE SUMNER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 419
VALID 152330Z - 160040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1277
..DEAN..06/15/24
ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...TOP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 419
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC005-015-017-027-035-041-045-061-073-077-079-085-087-095-111-
113-115-127-139-143-149-155-161-169-173-177-191-197-160040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON BUTLER CHASE
CLAY COWLEY DICKINSON
DOUGLAS GEARY GREENWOOD
HARPER HARVEY JACKSON
JEFFERSON KINGMAN LYON
MCPHERSON MARION MORRIS
OSAGE OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE
RENO RILEY SALINE
SEDGWICK SHAWNEE SUMNER
WABAUNSEE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 419
VALID 152210Z - 152340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DEAN..06/15/24
ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...TOP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 419
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC005-015-017-027-035-041-045-061-073-077-079-085-087-095-111-
113-115-127-139-143-149-155-161-169-173-177-191-197-152340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON BUTLER CHASE
CLAY COWLEY DICKINSON
DOUGLAS GEARY GREENWOOD
HARPER HARVEY JACKSON
JEFFERSON KINGMAN LYON
MCPHERSON MARION MORRIS
OSAGE OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE
RENO RILEY SALINE
SEDGWICK SHAWNEE SUMNER
WABAUNSEE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.