Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 340
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS
WESTERN KENTUCKY
EASTERN MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1055 AM UNTIL 600
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF FORT LEONARD WOOD MISSOURI TO 10 MILES NORTH OF
CARBONDALE ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 337...WW 338...WW 339...
DISCUSSION...MCS WITH WELL-DEFINED MCV IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY
THIS AFTERNOON AS IT PROGRESSES EWD AND ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG THE MS RIVER WITH MLCAPE
INCREASING TO 2000-3000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH A DEEP
WSWLY WIND FIELD WILL SUPPORT FORWARD-PROPAGATION OF MCS WITH THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING CORRIDORS OF WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 340 SEVERE TSTM IL KY MO 231555Z - 232300Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
20WSW TBN/FORT LEONARD WOOD MO/ - 10N MDH/CARBONDALE IL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM N/S /44ENE SGF - 49ENE FAM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.
LAT...LON 38869247 39158925 36688925 36409247
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 340 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 340
VALID 232215Z - 232340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N DYR TO
10 ENE CGI TO 15 NNE MDH.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 900
..COHEN..05/23/11
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 340
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-087-127-151-153-165-185-193-199-
232340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN
GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN
JOHNSON MASSAC POPE
PULASKI SALINE WABASH
WHITE WILLIAMSON
$$
INC051-125-129-147-163-173-232340-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GIBSON PIKE POSEY
SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK
$$
KYC007-039-075-105-232340-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CARLISLE FULTON
HICKMAN
$$
MOC133-232340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MISSISSIPPI
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 340
VALID 232030Z - 232140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW POF
TO 15 SE FAM TO 15 N MDH.
..HART..05/23/11
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 340
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-087-127-151-153-165-181-185-193-
199-232140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN
GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN
JACKSON JOHNSON MASSAC
POPE PULASKI SALINE
UNION WABASH WHITE
WILLIAMSON
$$
INC051-125-129-147-163-173-232140-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GIBSON PIKE POSEY
SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK
$$
KYC007-039-075-105-232140-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CARLISLE FULTON
HICKMAN
$$
MOC017-023-031-123-133-143-157-187-201-207-223-232140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
MADISON MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID
PERRY ST. FRANCOIS SCOTT
STODDARD WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 340
VALID 231930Z - 232040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW ARG
TO 45 NE UNO TO 20 W FAM TO 15 W SLO.
..HART..05/23/11
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 340
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-121-127-145-151-153-157-
165-181-185-189-191-193-199-232040-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN
GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
MARION MASSAC PERRY
POPE PULASKI RANDOLPH
SALINE UNION WABASH
WASHINGTON WAYNE WHITE
WILLIAMSON
$$
KYC007-039-075-105-232040-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CARLISLE FULTON
HICKMAN
$$
MOC017-023-031-035-093-123-133-143-157-181-186-187-201-207-223-
232040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER IRON MADISON
MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID PERRY
RIPLEY STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS
SCOTT STODDARD WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 340
VALID 231850Z - 231940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW ARG
TO 45 NE UNO TO 25 S STL TO 25 NE ALN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 893
..HART..05/23/11
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 340
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-005-027-051-055-077-081-087-121-135-145-153-157-163-181-
189-199-231940-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER BOND CLINTON
FAYETTE FRANKLIN JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSON MARION
MONTGOMERY PERRY PULASKI
RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR UNION
WASHINGTON WILLIAMSON
$$
KYC007-039-075-105-231940-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CARLISLE FULTON
HICKMAN
$$
MOC017-023-031-035-093-123-133-143-157-179-181-186-187-201-207-
223-231940-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER IRON MADISON
MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID PERRY
REYNOLDS RIPLEY STE. GENEVIEVE
ST. FRANCOIS SCOTT STODDARD
WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 340
VALID 231745Z - 231840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW ARG
TO 20 NE VIH TO 25 ENE COU.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 893
..HART..05/23/11
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 340
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-005-013-027-051-055-061-077-081-083-087-117-119-121-133-
135-145-153-157-163-181-189-199-231840-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER BOND CALHOUN
CLINTON FAYETTE FRANKLIN
GREENE JACKSON JEFFERSON
JERSEY JOHNSON MACOUPIN
MADISON MARION MONROE
MONTGOMERY PERRY PULASKI
RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR UNION
WASHINGTON WILLIAMSON
$$
KYC007-039-075-105-231840-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CARLISLE FULTON
HICKMAN
$$
MOC017-023-031-035-071-093-099-113-123-133-139-143-157-163-179-
181-183-186-187-189-201-207-219-221-223-510-231840-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER FRANKLIN IRON
JEFFERSON LINCOLN MADISON
MISSISSIPPI MONTGOMERY NEW MADRID
PERRY PIKE REYNOLDS
RIPLEY ST. CHARLES STE. GENEVIEVE
ST. FRANCOIS ST. LOUIS SCOTT
STODDARD WARREN WASHINGTON
WAYNE
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (40%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.