Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 321
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
705 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 705 AM UNTIL 200
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF HOT SPRINGS ARKANSAS TO 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF TUPELO
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...ON THE NOSE OF A MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET...ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS AR INTO NORTHERN MS/WESTERN TN THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE 12Z OBSERVED RAOB FROM LITTLE ROCK WAS INDICATIVE OF
STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT/AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WHICH WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE HAIL THIS MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY REMAIN SUSTAINED AND BECOME SURFACE BASED BY LATE
THIS MORNING/MIDDAY...WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS IN ADDITION TO SEVERE HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24030.
...GUYER/CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 321 SEVERE TSTM AR MS TN 221205Z - 221900Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
45WSW HOT/HOT SPRINGS AR/ - 45NE TUP/TUPELO MS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM N/S /44NNE TXK - 36W MSL/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
LAT...LON 35229383 35748820 33728820 33209383
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 321 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 321
VALID 221815Z - 221900Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW LLQ TO
40 SE FSM.
WW 321 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 221900Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 854.
..GRAMS..05/22/11
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 321
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-025-029-031-035-037-039-041-043-045-051-053-059-067-069-
077-079-085-093-095-105-107-111-117-119-123-125-145-147-149-
221900-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS CLEVELAND CONWAY
CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS
DALLAS DESHA DREW
FAULKNER GARLAND GRANT
HOT SPRING JACKSON JEFFERSON
LEE LINCOLN LONOKE
MISSISSIPPI MONROE PERRY
PHILLIPS POINSETT PRAIRIE
PULASKI ST. FRANCIS SALINE
WHITE WOODRUFF YELL
$$
MSC003-009-027-033-057-071-081-093-107-115-117-119-137-139-141-
143-145-221900-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON COAHOMA
DESOTO ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE
LEE MARSHALL PANOLA
PONTOTOC PRENTISS QUITMAN
TATE TIPPAH TISHOMINGO
TUNICA UNION
$$
TNC023-033-039-047-069-071-075-077-097-109-113-157-167-221900-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESTER CROCKETT DECATUR
FAYETTE HARDEMAN HARDIN
HAYWOOD HENDERSON LAUDERDALE
MCNAIRY MADISON SHELBY
TIPTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 321
VALID 221610Z - 221740Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...REFERENCE FORTHCOMING MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
850.
..JEWELL..05/22/11
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 321
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-011-013-019-025-029-031-035-037-039-041-043-045-051-053-
059-067-069-077-079-085-093-095-097-103-105-107-109-111-117-119-
123-125-145-147-149-221740-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN
CLARK CLEVELAND CONWAY
CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS
DALLAS DESHA DREW
FAULKNER GARLAND GRANT
HOT SPRING JACKSON JEFFERSON
LEE LINCOLN LONOKE
MISSISSIPPI MONROE MONTGOMERY
OUACHITA PERRY PHILLIPS
PIKE POINSETT PRAIRIE
PULASKI ST. FRANCIS SALINE
WHITE WOODRUFF YELL
$$
MSC003-009-027-033-057-071-081-093-107-115-117-119-137-139-141-
143-145-221740-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON COAHOMA
DESOTO ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE
LEE MARSHALL PANOLA
PONTOTOC PRENTISS QUITMAN
TATE TIPPAH TISHOMINGO
TUNICA UNION
$$
TNC023-033-039-047-069-071-075-077-097-109-113-157-167-221740-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESTER CROCKETT DECATUR
FAYETTE HARDEMAN HARDIN
HAYWOOD HENDERSON LAUDERDALE
MCNAIRY MADISON SHELBY
TIPTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 321
VALID 221540Z - 221640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..JEWELL..05/22/11
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 321
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-011-013-019-025-029-031-035-037-039-041-043-045-051-053-
059-067-069-077-079-085-093-095-097-103-105-107-109-111-117-119-
123-125-145-147-149-221640-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN
CLARK CLEVELAND CONWAY
CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS
DALLAS DESHA DREW
FAULKNER GARLAND GRANT
HOT SPRING JACKSON JEFFERSON
LEE LINCOLN LONOKE
MISSISSIPPI MONROE MONTGOMERY
OUACHITA PERRY PHILLIPS
PIKE POINSETT PRAIRIE
PULASKI ST. FRANCIS SALINE
WHITE WOODRUFF YELL
$$
MSC003-009-027-033-057-071-081-093-107-115-117-119-137-139-141-
143-145-221640-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON COAHOMA
DESOTO ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE
LEE MARSHALL PANOLA
PONTOTOC PRENTISS QUITMAN
TATE TIPPAH TISHOMINGO
TUNICA UNION
$$
TNC023-033-039-047-069-071-075-077-097-109-113-157-167-221640-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESTER CROCKETT DECATUR
FAYETTE HARDEMAN HARDIN
HAYWOOD HENDERSON LAUDERDALE
MCNAIRY MADISON SHELBY
TIPTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 321
VALID 221455Z - 221540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..JEWELL..05/22/11
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 321
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-011-013-019-025-029-031-035-037-039-041-043-045-051-053-
059-067-069-077-079-085-093-095-097-103-105-107-109-111-117-119-
123-125-145-147-149-221540-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN
CLARK CLEVELAND CONWAY
CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS
DALLAS DESHA DREW
FAULKNER GARLAND GRANT
HOT SPRING JACKSON JEFFERSON
LEE LINCOLN LONOKE
MISSISSIPPI MONROE MONTGOMERY
OUACHITA PERRY PHILLIPS
PIKE POINSETT PRAIRIE
PULASKI ST. FRANCIS SALINE
WHITE WOODRUFF YELL
$$
MSC003-009-027-033-057-071-081-093-107-115-117-119-137-139-141-
143-145-221540-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON COAHOMA
DESOTO ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE
LEE MARSHALL PANOLA
PONTOTOC PRENTISS QUITMAN
TATE TIPPAH TISHOMINGO
TUNICA UNION
$$
TNC023-033-039-047-069-071-075-077-097-109-113-157-167-221540-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESTER CROCKETT DECATUR
FAYETTE HARDEMAN HARDIN
HAYWOOD HENDERSON LAUDERDALE
MCNAIRY MADISON SHELBY
TIPTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 321
VALID 221340Z - 221440Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..JEWELL..05/22/11
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 321
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-011-013-019-025-029-031-035-037-039-041-043-045-051-053-
059-067-069-077-079-085-093-095-097-103-105-107-109-111-117-119-
123-125-145-147-149-221440-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN
CLARK CLEVELAND CONWAY
CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS
DALLAS DESHA DREW
FAULKNER GARLAND GRANT
HOT SPRING JACKSON JEFFERSON
LEE LINCOLN LONOKE
MISSISSIPPI MONROE MONTGOMERY
OUACHITA PERRY PHILLIPS
PIKE POINSETT PRAIRIE
PULASKI ST. FRANCIS SALINE
WHITE WOODRUFF YELL
$$
MSC003-009-027-033-057-071-081-093-107-115-117-119-137-139-141-
143-145-221440-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON COAHOMA
DESOTO ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE
LEE MARSHALL PANOLA
PONTOTOC PRENTISS QUITMAN
TATE TIPPAH TISHOMINGO
TUNICA UNION
$$
TNC023-033-039-047-069-071-075-077-097-109-113-157-167-221440-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESTER CROCKETT DECATUR
FAYETTE HARDEMAN HARDIN
HAYWOOD HENDERSON LAUDERDALE
MCNAIRY MADISON SHELBY
TIPTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.