Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 319
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
535 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 535 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF CHILLICOTHE MISSOURI TO 20 MILES WEST OF KNOB NOSTER
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 316...WW 317...WW 318...
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN NE KS...AND
THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS
EVENING WHILE SPREADING EWD/NEWD INTO NW MO. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG...WHILE DEEP-LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE VERY LARGE...WHILE THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS STORMS CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE SMALL
CLUSTERS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25030.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 319 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 212235Z - 220400Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
55NNW CDJ/CHILLICOTHE MO/ - 20W SZL/KNOB NOSTER MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /55SSW DSM - 38NE BUM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
LAT...LON 40549265 38709262 38709522 40549530
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 319 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 319
VALID 220340Z - 220440Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GARNER..05/22/11
ATTN...WFO...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 319
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC005-043-091-103-209-220440-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON DONIPHAN JOHNSON
LEAVENWORTH WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC001-003-005-021-025-033-041-047-049-061-063-075-079-081-087-
089-095-107-115-117-121-129-147-165-171-175-177-195-197-211-227-
220440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ANDREW ATCHISON
BUCHANAN CALDWELL CARROLL
CHARITON CLAY CLINTON
DAVIESS DEKALB GENTRY
GRUNDY HARRISON HOLT
HOWARD JACKSON LAFAYETTE
LINN LIVINGSTON MACON
MERCER NODAWAY PLATTE
PUTNAM RANDOLPH RAY
SALINE SCHUYLER SULLIVAN
WORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 319
VALID 220235Z - 220340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GARNER..05/22/11
ATTN...WFO...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 319
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC005-043-091-103-209-220340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON DONIPHAN JOHNSON
LEAVENWORTH WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC001-003-005-021-025-033-041-047-049-061-063-075-079-081-087-
089-095-107-115-117-121-129-147-165-171-175-177-195-197-211-227-
220340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ANDREW ATCHISON
BUCHANAN CALDWELL CARROLL
CHARITON CLAY CLINTON
DAVIESS DEKALB GENTRY
GRUNDY HARRISON HOLT
HOWARD JACKSON LAFAYETTE
LINN LIVINGSTON MACON
MERCER NODAWAY PLATTE
PUTNAM RANDOLPH RAY
SALINE SCHUYLER SULLIVAN
WORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 319
VALID 220140Z - 220240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GARNER..05/22/11
ATTN...WFO...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 319
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC005-043-091-103-209-220240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON DONIPHAN JOHNSON
LEAVENWORTH WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC001-003-005-021-025-033-041-047-049-061-063-075-079-081-087-
089-095-107-115-117-121-129-147-165-171-175-177-195-197-211-227-
220240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ANDREW ATCHISON
BUCHANAN CALDWELL CARROLL
CHARITON CLAY CLINTON
DAVIESS DEKALB GENTRY
GRUNDY HARRISON HOLT
HOWARD JACKSON LAFAYETTE
LINN LIVINGSTON MACON
MERCER NODAWAY PLATTE
PUTNAM RANDOLPH RAY
SALINE SCHUYLER SULLIVAN
WORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 319
VALID 220030Z - 220140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 843
..GARNER..05/22/11
ATTN...WFO...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 319
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC005-043-091-103-209-220140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON DONIPHAN JOHNSON
LEAVENWORTH WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC001-003-005-021-025-033-041-047-049-061-063-075-079-081-087-
089-095-107-115-117-121-129-147-165-171-175-177-195-197-211-227-
220140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ANDREW ATCHISON
BUCHANAN CALDWELL CARROLL
CHARITON CLAY CLINTON
DAVIESS DEKALB GENTRY
GRUNDY HARRISON HOLT
HOWARD JACKSON LAFAYETTE
LINN LIVINGSTON MACON
MERCER NODAWAY PLATTE
PUTNAM RANDOLPH RAY
SALINE SCHUYLER SULLIVAN
WORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (80%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
High (70%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
@NWSSPC
