Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 316
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
145 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 145 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF AUSTIN TEXAS TO 50 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
STEPHENVILLE TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR ALONG SLOW-MOVING DRYLINE. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS IS
HOT AND QUITE MOIST WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3500+ J/KG. WHILE
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...THE PRESENCE OF
AROUND 40 KT WLY FLOW IN THE MIDLEVELS IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27020.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 316 SEVERE TSTM TX 211845Z - 220200Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
80WSW AUS/AUSTIN TX/ - 50ENE SEP/STEPHENVILLE TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /28WNW SAT - 29SW DFW/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27020.
LAT...LON 29859993 32499841 32499636 29859793
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 316 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 316
VALID 220135Z - 220240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE JCT
TO 30 E BWD TO 20 S MWL.
..GOSS..05/22/11
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 316
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC019-027-031-035-053-091-093-099-113-139-143-145-171-193-209-
217-221-251-259-265-267-281-293-299-309-319-333-349-367-385-411-
425-439-453-491-220240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANDERA BELL BLANCO
BOSQUE BURNET COMAL
COMANCHE CORYELL DALLAS
ELLIS ERATH FALLS
GILLESPIE HAMILTON HAYS
HILL HOOD JOHNSON
KENDALL KERR KIMBLE
LAMPASAS LIMESTONE LLANO
MCLENNAN MASON MILLS
NAVARRO PARKER REAL
SAN SABA SOMERVELL TARRANT
TRAVIS WILLIAMSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 316
VALID 220040Z - 220140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE JCT
TO 30 E BWD TO 20 S MWL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 844.
..GOSS..05/22/11
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 316
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC019-027-031-035-053-091-093-099-113-139-143-145-171-193-209-
217-221-251-259-265-267-281-293-299-309-319-333-349-367-385-411-
425-439-453-491-220140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANDERA BELL BLANCO
BOSQUE BURNET COMAL
COMANCHE CORYELL DALLAS
ELLIS ERATH FALLS
GILLESPIE HAMILTON HAYS
HILL HOOD JOHNSON
KENDALL KERR KIMBLE
LAMPASAS LIMESTONE LLANO
MCLENNAN MASON MILLS
NAVARRO PARKER REAL
SAN SABA SOMERVELL TARRANT
TRAVIS WILLIAMSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 316
VALID 212340Z - 220040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE JCT
TO 30 E BWD TO 20 S MWL.
..GOSS..05/21/11
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 316
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC019-027-031-035-053-091-093-099-113-139-143-145-171-193-209-
217-221-251-259-265-267-281-293-299-309-319-333-349-367-385-411-
425-439-453-491-220040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANDERA BELL BLANCO
BOSQUE BURNET COMAL
COMANCHE CORYELL DALLAS
ELLIS ERATH FALLS
GILLESPIE HAMILTON HAYS
HILL HOOD JOHNSON
KENDALL KERR KIMBLE
LAMPASAS LIMESTONE LLANO
MCLENNAN MASON MILLS
NAVARRO PARKER REAL
SAN SABA SOMERVELL TARRANT
TRAVIS WILLIAMSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 316
VALID 212155Z - 212240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE JCT
TO 30 E BWD TO 20 S MWL.
..GOSS..05/21/11
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 316
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC019-027-031-035-053-091-093-099-113-139-143-145-171-193-209-
217-221-251-259-265-267-281-293-299-309-319-333-349-367-385-411-
425-439-453-491-212240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANDERA BELL BLANCO
BOSQUE BURNET COMAL
COMANCHE CORYELL DALLAS
ELLIS ERATH FALLS
GILLESPIE HAMILTON HAYS
HILL HOOD JOHNSON
KENDALL KERR KIMBLE
LAMPASAS LIMESTONE LLANO
MCLENNAN MASON MILLS
NAVARRO PARKER REAL
SAN SABA SOMERVELL TARRANT
TRAVIS WILLIAMSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
High (70%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
@NWSSPC
