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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 318
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
345 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF TOPEKA KANSAS TO 25 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF RUSSELL
KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 316...WW 317...
DISCUSSION...HIGH-BASED TSTMS ONGOING OVER CNTRL NEB INTO N-CNTRL KS
ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THEY ENCOUNTER AN INCREASING MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WHERE MLCAPE HAS INCREASED TO 2000-2500 J/KG.
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW NEAR SLN SWD ALONG DRYLINE AS CAP IS
GRADUALLY ERODED. AREA PROFILER/VAD DATA SHOW VERTICALLY VEERING
WIND PROFILES WITH 35-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26025.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 318 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 212045Z - 220400Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
20ENE TOP/TOPEKA KS/ - 25NNW RSL/RUSSELL KS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /32W MKC - 57E HLC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.
LAT...LON 38389527 38409900 39999900 39979527
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 318 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #7 ON WW 318
VALID 220340Z - 220440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W EMP TO
20 W STJ.
..GARNER..05/22/11
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 318
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC003-031-045-059-087-111-139-177-220440-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON COFFEY DOUGLAS
FRANKLIN JEFFERSON LYON
OSAGE SHAWNEE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 318
VALID 220235Z - 220340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W EMP TO
25 SSW BIE.
..GARNER..05/22/11
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 318
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC013-045-061-085-087-111-117-127-131-139-149-161-177-197-
220340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN DOUGLAS GEARY
JACKSON JEFFERSON LYON
MARSHALL MORRIS NEMAHA
OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE RILEY
SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 318
VALID 220140Z - 220240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE SLN
TO 20 NE RSL TO 35 NNW CNK.
..GARNER..05/22/11
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 318
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC013-017-027-029-041-045-061-085-087-105-111-115-117-127-131-
139-143-149-157-161-169-177-197-201-220240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CHASE CLAY
CLOUD DICKINSON DOUGLAS
GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON
LINCOLN LYON MARION
MARSHALL MORRIS NEMAHA
OSAGE OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE
REPUBLIC RILEY SALINE
SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 318
VALID 220030Z - 220140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 843
..GARNER..05/22/11
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 318
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC013-017-027-029-041-045-061-085-087-089-105-111-115-117-123-
127-131-139-141-143-147-149-157-161-163-169-177-183-197-201-
220140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CHASE CLAY
CLOUD DICKINSON DOUGLAS
GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON
JEWELL LINCOLN LYON
MARION MARSHALL MITCHELL
MORRIS NEMAHA OSAGE
OSBORNE OTTAWA PHILLIPS
POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC RILEY
ROOKS SALINE SHAWNEE
SMITH WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON
$$
NEC001-035-059-061-077-079-081-093-099-121-125-129-143-169-181-
185-220140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS CLAY FILLMORE
FRANKLIN GREELEY HALL
HAMILTON HOWARD KEARNEY
MERRICK NANCE NUCKOLLS
POLK THAYER WEBSTER
YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 318
VALID 212340Z - 220040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GARNER..05/21/11
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 318
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC013-017-027-029-041-045-061-085-087-089-105-111-115-117-123-
127-131-139-141-143-147-149-157-161-163-169-177-183-197-201-
220040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CHASE CLAY
CLOUD DICKINSON DOUGLAS
GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON
JEWELL LINCOLN LYON
MARION MARSHALL MITCHELL
MORRIS NEMAHA OSAGE
OSBORNE OTTAWA PHILLIPS
POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC RILEY
ROOKS SALINE SHAWNEE
SMITH WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON
$$
NEC001-035-059-061-077-079-081-093-099-121-125-129-143-169-181-
185-220040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS CLAY FILLMORE
FRANKLIN GREELEY HALL
HAMILTON HOWARD KEARNEY
MERRICK NANCE NUCKOLLS
POLK THAYER WEBSTER
YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 318
VALID 212230Z - 212340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GARNER..05/21/11
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 318
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC013-017-027-029-041-045-061-085-087-089-105-111-115-117-123-
127-131-139-141-143-147-149-157-161-163-169-177-183-197-201-
212340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CHASE CLAY
CLOUD DICKINSON DOUGLAS
GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON
JEWELL LINCOLN LYON
MARION MARSHALL MITCHELL
MORRIS NEMAHA OSAGE
OSBORNE OTTAWA PHILLIPS
POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC RILEY
ROOKS SALINE SHAWNEE
SMITH WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON
$$
NEC001-035-059-061-077-079-081-093-099-121-125-129-143-169-181-
185-212340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS CLAY FILLMORE
FRANKLIN GREELEY HALL
HAMILTON HOWARD KEARNEY
MERRICK NANCE NUCKOLLS
POLK THAYER WEBSTER
YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 318
VALID 212155Z - 212240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..05/21/11
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 318
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC013-017-027-029-041-061-085-089-105-111-115-117-123-127-131-
139-141-143-147-149-157-161-163-169-177-183-197-201-212240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CHASE CLAY
CLOUD DICKINSON GEARY
JACKSON JEWELL LINCOLN
LYON MARION MARSHALL
MITCHELL MORRIS NEMAHA
OSAGE OSBORNE OTTAWA
PHILLIPS POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC
RILEY ROOKS SALINE
SHAWNEE SMITH WABAUNSEE
WASHINGTON
$$
NEC001-035-059-061-077-079-081-093-099-121-125-129-143-169-181-
185-212240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS CLAY FILLMORE
FRANKLIN GREELEY HALL
HAMILTON HOWARD KEARNEY
MERRICK NANCE NUCKOLLS
POLK THAYER WEBSTER
YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (50%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.