Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 146
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO
WESTERN KANSAS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1235 PM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
GOODLAND KANSAS TO 50 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF MEDICINE LODGE
KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG THE SURFACE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN KS IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. STRONG LARGE
SCALE FORCING AND FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT THE RISK OF A
FEW TORNADOES. VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 146 TORNADO CO KS 101735Z - 110000Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40ENE GLD/GOODLAND KS/ - 50WSW P28/MEDICINE LODGE KS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /34ENE GLD - 46NNE GAG/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 39569969 37009815 37000069 39560231
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 146 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 146
VALID 102235Z - 102340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW AVK
TO 45 S MCK.
..STOPPKOTTE..05/10/10
ATTN...WFO...GLD...DDC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 146
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-051-145-151-165-185-102340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER ELLIS PAWNEE
PRATT RUSH STAFFORD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 146
VALID 102130Z - 102240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW AVK
TO 50 SSW HLC TO 50 S GLD.
..STOPPKOTTE..05/10/10
ATTN...WFO...GLD...DDC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 146
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC063-102240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KIT CARSON
$$
KSC007-047-051-063-065-109-135-145-151-165-179-181-185-193-195-
199-102240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER EDWARDS ELLIS
GOVE GRAHAM LOGAN
NESS PAWNEE PRATT
RUSH SHERIDAN SHERMAN
STAFFORD THOMAS TREGO
WALLACE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 146
VALID 102045Z - 102140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW AVK
TO 40 NE GCK TO 60 NW GCK.
..KERR..05/10/10
ATTN...WFO...GLD...DDC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 146
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC063-102140-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KIT CARSON
$$
KSC007-033-047-051-063-065-083-097-109-135-145-151-165-179-181-
185-193-195-199-203-102140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER COMANCHE EDWARDS
ELLIS GOVE GRAHAM
HODGEMAN KIOWA LOGAN
NESS PAWNEE PRATT
RUSH SHERIDAN SHERMAN
STAFFORD THOMAS TREGO
WALLACE WICHITA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 146
VALID 101935Z - 102040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N GAG TO
5 ENE GCK TO 45 WNW GCK.
..KERR..05/10/10
ATTN...WFO...GLD...DDC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 146
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC063-102040-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KIT CARSON
$$
KSC007-025-033-047-051-055-057-063-065-069-083-097-101-109-135-
145-151-165-171-179-181-185-193-195-199-203-102040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER CLARK COMANCHE
EDWARDS ELLIS FINNEY
FORD GOVE GRAHAM
GRAY HODGEMAN KIOWA
LANE LOGAN NESS
PAWNEE PRATT RUSH
SCOTT SHERIDAN SHERMAN
STAFFORD THOMAS TREGO
WALLACE WICHITA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 146
VALID 101840Z - 101940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..05/10/10
ATTN...WFO...GLD...DDC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 146
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC063-101940-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KIT CARSON
$$
KSC007-025-033-047-051-055-057-063-065-069-081-083-097-101-109-
119-135-145-151-165-171-179-181-185-193-195-199-203-101940-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER CLARK COMANCHE
EDWARDS ELLIS FINNEY
FORD GOVE GRAHAM
GRAY HASKELL HODGEMAN
KIOWA LANE LOGAN
MEADE NESS PAWNEE
PRATT RUSH SCOTT
SHERIDAN SHERMAN STAFFORD
THOMAS TREGO WALLACE
WICHITA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (80%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (60%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.