SPC AC 260741

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0241 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
   IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...

   ...SUMMARY...
   An outbreak of severe weather is likely across portions of the
   Midwest and Upper Midwest. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and strong
   to intense tornadoes are likely.

   ...A tornado outbreak with the potential for strong to intense
   tornadoes is possible on Monday...

   ...Midwest into the Upper Midwest...
   A strong mid-level jet streak will move rapidly northeastward from
   the Southwest to the Upper Midwest on Monday. As this occurs, a
   surface low will deepen and move from the northern Plains to the
   northern Great Lakes. Strong southwesterly lower tropospheric flow
   will advect high theta-e air northward across the Midwest and into
   parts of the Upper Midwest. Broken to scattered cloud cover will
   support surface heating and strong destabilization across the warm
   sector in Iowa and into southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

   Severe storms may develop as early as mid-day across western
   Minnesota and western Iowa on the nose of a 70-80 knot mid-level jet
   streak. These storms may begin as supercells, but mode may become
   more linear as the cold front intersects the dryline across
   Minnesota during the afternoon. Even if mode is more linear,
   embedded tornadoes will be possible given the strengthening
   low-level shear.

   Farther south and east, a more discrete mode will be favored within
   a weakly capped warm sector. As lower tropospheric flow strengthens
   through the day, the warm sector will expand rapidly northeastward,
   creating a broad warm-sector featuring moderate to strong
   instability and very strong (60+ knots) shear. Increasing forcing
   during the afternoon should be sufficient to overcome weak capping
   across the warm sector. Therefore open warm sector supercells will
   be possible in addition to supercells along the eastward advancing
   dryline. Any supercells which can develop within this increasingly
   favorable environment Monday afternoon/evening will be capable of
   strong to intense tornadoes. By late evening, a squall line will
   likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front
   advances rapidly southeast. Severe wind gusts and embedded tornadoes
   will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the
   overnight hours.

   ...Central/Southern Plains...
   A strongly unstable and strongly sheared warm sector will exist
   along and east of the dryline from eastern Kansas southward to West
   Texas. Forcing is much weaker than farther north with only weak
   height falls along the dryline. However, most guidance shows minimal
   inhibition along the dryline and at least isolated storm
   development, perhaps aided by some nocturnal low-level jet increase
   during the evening. Any supercells which develop will pose a threat
   for all severe hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes.

   ..Bentley.. 04/26/2025

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