SPC AC 241727

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1227 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF OKLAHOMA...NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS...AND FAR EASTERN NEW
   MEXICO...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma,
   northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and
   evening.

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper trough progressing east-southeastward across Ontario and
   the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will support surface
   cyclogenesis over the Lower Michigan area.  As the low
   develops/shifts eastward with time, a surface cold front will
   advance southeastward across the Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valleys,
   and more slowly southward across the Oklahoma area.  

   Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific will
   deepen and shift southeastward, reaching the central California
   Coast overnight.  In response, downstream ridging will amplify
   across the central U.S. through the period.

   ...Southern Plains...
   Convection may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of
   the Oklahoma/Kansas area, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front.
   Despite ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping should
   support isolated to scattered storm redevelopment by afternoon,
   particularly near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma
   and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day.  Moderate
   afternoon destabilization, but modest shear, and large-scale
   ridging, suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of
   hail and locally gusty/damaging winds.  Low-level jet development
   expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain
   convection through the overnight hours.

   ...Elsewhere...
   Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms
   capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected
   across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and
   ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front.  Modest CAPE is
   expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any
   severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local.

   ..Goss.. 04/24/2025

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z