SPC AC 020656

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0156 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   WESTERN TEXAS INTO FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered storms, some possibly severe, will be possible over parts
   of the southern High Plains.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   On Saturday, a very deep upper low will move into the Great Basin,
   with a large area of strong cyclonic flow aloft over much of the
   western CONUS. Preceding this system will be a lead southern-stream
   wave, moving across northern Mexico and into the southern Plains
   after 00Z.

   To the north, a shortwave trough will gradually lift across the
   upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, with a weak surface high building
   south across the Plains behind a cold front. This front will lie
   roughly from IL into northern TX by 00Z, with southern portions of
   the boundary stalling. A moist and unstable air mass will remain to
   the south, primarily over TX, but low-level moisture will also
   spread into eastern NM.

   While ongoing storms are likely along the front early in the day,
   heating and destabilization ahead of it will favor diurnal strong to
   possibly severe storms, producing localized hail or strong gusts.
   Even if the storms become elevated, steep lapse rates aloft will
   still favor vigorous updrafts. With time, storms could become quite
   numerous with an easterly low-level jet developing, aiding theta-e
   advection toward the frontal zone.

   ..Jewell.. 05/02/2024

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z