SPC AC 220059

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0759 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

   Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
   ARIZONA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms will remain possible this evening
   across parts of southern Arizona.

   ...Southern Arizona...
   Clusters of thunderstorms continue moving south across
   central/southern AZ early this evening, with isolated reports of
   measured severe/near severe gusts, or wind damage, received over the
   past few hours. Storm-scale outflow has surged southward ahead of
   the higher reflectivity cores across much of the area, and this has
   tended to limit more widespread severe potential. The presence of a
   well-mixed boundary layer persisting for a few more hours, combined
   with subtle ascent with a southward-moving mid-level shortwave
   trough, will result in isolated severe potential continuing through
   the early evening.

   ...Southeast Colorado/Eastern New Mexico...
   Isolated thunderstorms continue across southeast CO/northeast NM at
   01z, within an environment characterized by MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg,
   and modest effective shear of around 25 kts. Although some potential
   will remain for a stronger storm over the next couple of hours, the
   overall trend should be for diminishing intensity with time as
   boundary-layer cooling commences.

   ..Bunting.. 07/22/2024

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