SPC AC 290717

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0217 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

   Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
   TEXAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHWARD TO THE GREAT
   LAKES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas
   into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes.
   Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail.

   ...Discussion...
   A mid-level trough will eject across the Midwest into the
   Mississippi and Ohio Valleys region on Thursday, with a broad area
   of enhanced southwesterly flow extending from the lower Mississippi
   Valley into the Great Lakes region. A cold front will sag southward
   through this region, with potential for scattered thunderstorm
   development throughout the day Thursday across a broad region. A
   primarily marginal risk for wind and hail will be possible with this
   activity. This overall risk is limited by displacement of better
   shear northward through time with respect to the more favorable air
   mass across Tennessee southward into northern MS/AR/northern LA.
   Nonetheless, dew points in the mid 50s to 60s will extend as far
   north as the Great Lakes, where stronger deep layer shear is
   forecast which supports bringing the probabilities into this region.

   Early in the D3/Thursday period, a line of thunderstorms may be
   ongoing across northeastern Texas into central Arkansas. Some
   re-intensification of this activity will be possible through the
   afternoon as the air mass downstream warms and becomes favorably
   unstable. Weaker shear profiles and forcing gradually shifting
   northward through the afternoon/evening will likely keep this threat
   lower. Nonetheless, potential for damaging wind will be possible.

   Further west across the dryline in central Texas, deep layer flow
   will remain modest enough to support potential for some thunderstorm
   development by the late afternoon. While low level shear will be
   weak, deep layer flow will support potential for instances of severe
   hail, given steep low to mid-level lapse rates.

   ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/29/2025

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z