SPC AC 160729

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0229 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

   Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
   Southeast States and Carolinas on Saturday.

   ...Portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic..
   A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Mid MS Valley
   through east TX early Saturday morning before progressing eastward
   through the TN Valley and Southeast during the day. Moderate
   southwesterly mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, stretching
   from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast and into the Carolinas
   early in the period before gradually shifting southeastward over
   time. 

   A convective line will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning,
   although its location varies considerably within the guidance.
   Low-level airmass ahead of this convective across much of the
   Southeast and Carolinas will likely be characterized by dewpoints in
   the upper 60s/low 70s, contributing to moderate buoyancy ahead of
   the approaching convective line. General expectation is for this
   line to persist as it moves eastward across the AL, GA, and SC, with
   some isolated damaging gusts possible. This line is not currently
   expected to impact NC, but a few thunderstorms are still possible in
   the afternoon amid low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weak
   surface low. Buoyancy will be modest, but westerly flow aloft should
   be strong enough for a few more organized storm structures capable
   of damaging gusts and/or isolated hail. 

   ...Upper Midwest...
   A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to move eastward from
   Saskatchewan and the northern Plains through Manitoba and the Upper
   Midwest on Saturday. An attendant cold front will sweep eastward
   through the Upper Midwest just ahead of the shortwave, with isolated
   thunderstorm development possible along this front. A storm or two
   could produce damaging gusts, but the overall coverage is currently
   expected to remain below the threshold for introducing severe
   probabilities.

   ..Mosier.. 05/16/2024

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z