Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 318
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
555 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN CONNECTICUT
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 555 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF POUGHKEEPSIE NEW YORK TO 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
PHILADELPHIA PENNSYLVANIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 313...WW 314...WW
315...WW 316...WW 317...
DISCUSSION...A LINE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN PA AND
SOUTHEAST NY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
WATCH AREA. HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS ARE RESULTING IN MODERATE CAPE
VALUES. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED
MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25025.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 318 SEVERE TSTM CT NJ NY PA CW 292155Z - 300200Z
AXIS..45 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
5NNW POU/POUGHKEEPSIE NY/ - 15SW PHL/PHILADELPHIA PA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 40NM E/W /47NE SAX - 47NW SIE/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25025.
LAT...LON 41687304 39707459 39707630 41687479
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 318 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 318
VALID 300035Z - 300140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W ILG TO
20 N EWR TO 20 ESE POU TO 30 SW BDL.
..DIAL..05/30/12
ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 318
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC001-009-300140-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FAIRFIELD NEW HAVEN
$$
NJC003-005-007-013-015-017-021-023-025-029-035-039-300140-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN
ESSEX GLOUCESTER HUDSON
MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH
OCEAN SOMERSET UNION
$$
NYC005-047-061-081-085-087-119-300140-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRONX KINGS NEW YORK
QUEENS RICHMOND ROCKLAND
WESTCHESTER
$$
PAC017-045-091-101-300140-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUCKS DELAWARE MONTGOMERY
PHILADELPHIA
$$
ANZ338-300140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NEW YORK HARBOR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 318
VALID 292335Z - 300040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW ILG TO
20 E ABE TO 10 WNW POU.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 967
..DIAL..05/29/12
ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 318
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC001-009-300040-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FAIRFIELD NEW HAVEN
$$
NJC003-005-007-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-039-
300040-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN
ESSEX GLOUCESTER HUDSON
HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX
MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN
PASSAIC SOMERSET UNION
$$
NYC005-047-061-071-079-081-085-087-119-300040-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRONX KINGS NEW YORK
ORANGE PUTNAM QUEENS
RICHMOND ROCKLAND WESTCHESTER
$$
PAC017-029-045-091-101-300040-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUCKS CHESTER DELAWARE
MONTGOMERY PHILADELPHIA
$$
ANZ338-300040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NEW YORK HARBOR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.