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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 317
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
355 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
A SMALL PART OF NORTHWEST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 355 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MEDICINE LODGE KANSAS TO 30 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF ARDMORE
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 313...WW 314...WW
315...WW 316...
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU/TCU FIELD DEVELOPING FROM SWRN
KS INTO NWRN OK...AND WITH CAP CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...DEEP
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS ACROSS
PARTS OF SWRN KS AND WRN OK. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING MOISTURE OVER OK ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH MLCAPE OF 2500-3500 J/KG. VEERING
WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND RESULTANT STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL
PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INITIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
WITH STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO A SEWD MOVING MCS LATER THIS EVENING
WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29025.
...WEISS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 317 SEVERE TSTM KS OK TX 292055Z - 300400Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25NW P28/MEDICINE LODGE KS/ - 30WSW ADM/ARDMORE OK/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /64W ICT - 17WSW ADM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29025.
LAT...LON 37549734 34119601 34119898 37540044
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 317 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 317
VALID 300350Z - 300440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW GAG
TO 20 SSE AVK TO 35 S END TO 20 ENE OKC TO 20 SE CQB.
..DIAL..05/30/12
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 317
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-011-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-033-039-043-045-049-051-
063-065-067-069-075-087-093-095-099-109-123-125-133-137-141-149-
153-300440-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BLAINE BRYAN
CADDO CANADIAN CARTER
CLEVELAND COAL COMANCHE
COTTON CUSTER DEWEY
ELLIS GARVIN GRADY
HUGHES JACKSON JEFFERSON
JOHNSTON KIOWA MCCLAIN
MAJOR MARSHALL MURRAY
OKLAHOMA PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE
SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN
WASHITA WOODWARD
$$
TXC077-485-487-300440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY WICHITA WILBARGER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 317
VALID 300140Z - 300240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 971
..MOSIER..05/30/12
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 317
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-025-033-077-119-191-300240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER CLARK COMANCHE
HARPER MEADE SUMNER
$$
OKC003-005-011-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-033-039-043-045-047-
049-051-053-059-063-065-067-069-071-073-075-081-083-087-093-095-
099-103-109-119-123-125-133-137-141-149-151-153-300240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA ATOKA BLAINE
BRYAN CADDO CANADIAN
CARTER CLEVELAND COAL
COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER
DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD
GARVIN GRADY GRANT
HARPER HUGHES JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KAY
KINGFISHER KIOWA LINCOLN
LOGAN MCCLAIN MAJOR
MARSHALL MURRAY NOBLE
OKLAHOMA PAYNE PONTOTOC
POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE STEPHENS
TILLMAN WASHITA WOODS
WOODWARD
$$
TXC077-485-487-300240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY WICHITA WILBARGER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 317
VALID 300020Z - 300140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 969
..MOSIER..05/30/12
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 317
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-025-033-077-119-191-300140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER CLARK COMANCHE
HARPER MEADE SUMNER
$$
OKC003-005-011-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-033-039-043-045-047-
049-051-053-059-063-065-067-069-071-073-075-081-083-087-093-095-
099-103-109-119-123-125-133-137-141-149-151-153-300140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA ATOKA BLAINE
BRYAN CADDO CANADIAN
CARTER CLEVELAND COAL
COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER
DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD
GARVIN GRADY GRANT
HARPER HUGHES JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KAY
KINGFISHER KIOWA LINCOLN
LOGAN MCCLAIN MAJOR
MARSHALL MURRAY NOBLE
OKLAHOMA PAYNE PONTOTOC
POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE STEPHENS
TILLMAN WASHITA WOODS
WOODWARD
$$
TXC077-485-487-300140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY WICHITA WILBARGER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 317
VALID 292235Z - 292340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MOSIER..05/29/12
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 317
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-025-033-077-119-191-292340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER CLARK COMANCHE
HARPER MEADE SUMNER
$$
OKC003-005-011-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-033-039-043-045-047-
049-051-053-059-063-065-067-069-071-073-075-081-083-087-093-095-
099-103-109-119-123-125-133-137-141-149-151-153-292340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA ATOKA BLAINE
BRYAN CADDO CANADIAN
CARTER CLEVELAND COAL
COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER
DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD
GARVIN GRADY GRANT
HARPER HUGHES JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KAY
KINGFISHER KIOWA LINCOLN
LOGAN MCCLAIN MAJOR
MARSHALL MURRAY NOBLE
OKLAHOMA PAYNE PONTOTOC
POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE STEPHENS
TILLMAN WASHITA WOODS
WOODWARD
$$
TXC077-485-487-292340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY WICHITA WILBARGER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.