Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 355
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MARYLAND
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1240 PM UNTIL
800 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF PATUXENT RIVER MARYLAND TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
ROCKY MOUNT NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE
WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 352...WW 353...WW 354...
DISCUSSION...NOCTURNAL MCS CURRENTLY EMERGING FROM THE BLUE RIDGE
HAS SHOWN A RAPID INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG
ERN/SRN PERIPHERY OF SYSTEM COLD POOL. AMBIENT INFLOW AIR MASS HAS
WARMED INTO THE 80S. WHEN COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S...ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. GIVEN 40-50 KT WLY FLOW OBSERVED IN THE
700-500 MB LAYER /PER REGIONAL VAD DATA/...SETUP WILL FAVOR
ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28035.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 355 SEVERE TSTM MD NC VA CW 241640Z - 250000Z
AXIS..100 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
55WNW NHK/PATUXENT RIVER MD/ - 30SE RWI/ROCKY MOUNT NC/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 85NM E/W /23SW DCA - 64ESE RDU/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28035.
LAT...LON 38567551 35527573 35527930 38567920
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 355 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 355
VALID 242030Z - 242140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE GSB
TO 45 WSW ORF TO 30 ENE RIC TO 35 SW DCA.
..GRAMS..05/24/11
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...LWX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 355
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MDC009-017-019-037-039-045-047-242140-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALVERT CHARLES DORCHESTER
ST. MARYS SOMERSET WICOMICO
WORCESTER
$$
NCC015-029-041-053-073-091-139-143-242140-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERTIE CAMDEN CHOWAN
CURRITUCK GATES HERTFORD
PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS
$$
VAC001-057-059-073-093-095-097-099-103-115-119-131-133-153-159-
179-193-199-550-650-700-710-735-740-800-810-830-242140-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ACCOMACK ESSEX FAIRFAX
GLOUCESTER ISLE OF WIGHT JAMES CITY
KING AND QUEEN KING GEORGE LANCASTER
MATHEWS MIDDLESEX NORTHAMPTON
NORTHUMBERLAND PRINCE WILLIAM RICHMOND
STAFFORD WESTMORELAND YORK
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE HAMPTON NEWPORT NEWS
NORFOLK POQUOSON PORTSMOUTH
SUFFOLK VIRGINIA BEACH WILLIAMSBURG
$$
ANZ533-534-535-536-537-541-542-543-630-631-632-633-634-242140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK VA
CURRITUCK SOUND
CHESAPEKE BAY FROM LITTLE CREEK VA TO CAPE HENRY VA INCLUDING THE
CHESAPEKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 355
VALID 241945Z - 242040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S RDU TO
25 WNW RWI TO 15 S RZZ TO 45 WSW DCA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 931
..GRAMS..05/24/11
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...LWX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 355
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MDC009-017-019-037-039-045-047-242040-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALVERT CHARLES DORCHESTER
ST. MARYS SOMERSET WICOMICO
WORCESTER
$$
NCC015-029-041-053-065-069-073-083-091-127-131-139-143-195-
242040-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERTIE CAMDEN CHOWAN
CURRITUCK EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN
GATES HALIFAX HERTFORD
NASH NORTHAMPTON PASQUOTANK
PERQUIMANS WILSON
$$
VAC001-033-036-053-057-059-073-081-085-087-093-095-097-099-101-
103-115-119-127-131-133-149-153-159-175-179-181-183-193-199-550-
570-595-620-630-650-670-700-710-730-735-740-760-800-810-830-
242040-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ACCOMACK CAROLINE CHARLES CITY
DINWIDDIE ESSEX FAIRFAX
GLOUCESTER GREENSVILLE HANOVER
HENRICO ISLE OF WIGHT JAMES CITY
KING AND QUEEN KING GEORGE KING WILLIAM
LANCASTER MATHEWS MIDDLESEX
NEW KENT NORTHAMPTON NORTHUMBERLAND
PRINCE GEORGE PRINCE WILLIAM RICHMOND
SOUTHAMPTON STAFFORD SURRY
SUSSEX WESTMORELAND YORK
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE COLONIAL HEIGHTS EMPORIA
FRANKLIN FREDERICKSBURG HAMPTON
HOPEWELL NEWPORT NEWS NORFOLK
PETERSBURG POQUOSON PORTSMOUTH
RICHMOND SUFFOLK VIRGINIA BEACH
WILLIAMSBURG
$$
ANZ533-534-535-536-537-541-542-543-630-631-632-633-634-242040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK VA
CURRITUCK SOUND
CHESAPEKE BAY FROM LITTLE CREEK VA TO CAPE HENRY VA INCLUDING THE
CHESAPEKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 355
VALID 241820Z - 241940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GRAMS..05/24/11
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...LWX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 355
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MDC009-017-019-037-039-045-047-241940-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALVERT CHARLES DORCHESTER
ST. MARYS SOMERSET WICOMICO
WORCESTER
$$
NCC001-015-029-041-053-063-065-067-069-073-077-081-083-091-101-
127-131-135-139-143-145-181-183-185-191-195-241940-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALAMANCE BERTIE CAMDEN
CHOWAN CURRITUCK DURHAM
EDGECOMBE FORSYTH FRANKLIN
GATES GRANVILLE GUILFORD
HALIFAX HERTFORD JOHNSTON
NASH NORTHAMPTON ORANGE
PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PERSON
VANCE WAKE WARREN
WAYNE WILSON
$$
VAC001-003-007-015-025-033-036-041-047-049-053-057-059-065-073-
075-079-081-085-087-091-093-095-097-099-101-103-109-111-113-115-
117-119-125-127-131-133-135-137-139-145-147-149-153-157-159-165-
175-177-179-181-183-193-199-540-550-570-595-620-630-650-660-670-
700-710-730-735-740-760-790-800-810-820-830-241940-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ACCOMACK ALBEMARLE AMELIA
AUGUSTA BRUNSWICK CAROLINE
CHARLES CITY CHESTERFIELD CULPEPER
CUMBERLAND DINWIDDIE ESSEX
FAIRFAX FLUVANNA GLOUCESTER
GOOCHLAND GREENE GREENSVILLE
HANOVER HENRICO HIGHLAND
ISLE OF WIGHT JAMES CITY KING AND QUEEN
KING GEORGE KING WILLIAM LANCASTER
LOUISA LUNENBURG MADISON
MATHEWS MECKLENBURG MIDDLESEX
NELSON NEW KENT NORTHAMPTON
NORTHUMBERLAND NOTTOWAY ORANGE
PAGE POWHATAN PRINCE EDWARD
PRINCE GEORGE PRINCE WILLIAM RAPPAHANNOCK
RICHMOND ROCKINGHAM SOUTHAMPTON
SPOTSYLVANIA STAFFORD SURRY
SUSSEX WESTMORELAND YORK
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
CHARLOTTESVILLE CHESAPEAKE COLONIAL HEIGHTS
EMPORIA FRANKLIN FREDERICKSBURG
HAMPTON HARRISONBURG HOPEWELL
NEWPORT NEWS NORFOLK PETERSBURG
POQUOSON PORTSMOUTH RICHMOND
STAUNTON SUFFOLK VIRGINIA BEACH
WAYNESBORO WILLIAMSBURG
$$
ANZ533-534-535-536-537-541-542-543-630-631-632-633-634-241940-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK VA
CURRITUCK SOUND
CHESAPEKE BAY FROM LITTLE CREEK VA TO CAPE HENRY VA INCLUDING THE
CHESAPEKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (40%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.