Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 245
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
940 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
ALABAMA
FAR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 940 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GADSDEN ALABAMA TO 105 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF SELMA ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE
WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 235...WW 238...WW
239...WW 240...WW 241...WW 242...WW 243...WW 244...
DISCUSSION...WHILE STRONG MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS NOW
BEGINNING TO LIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD SERVE TO MAINTAIN TSTMS ALONG COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EWD
ACROSS WW AREA. AMBIENT AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-3000 J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH
EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF 300-500 M2/S2...ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WINDS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 245 TORNADO AL MS 280240Z - 280700Z
AXIS..45 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
GAD/GADSDEN AL/ - 105SW SEM/SELMA AL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 40NM E/W /45ENE VUZ - 33N SJI/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
LAT...LON 33978529 31278748 31278900 33978687
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 245 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 245
VALID 280535Z - 280640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW GZH
TO 20 NNW GZH.
..GRAMS..04/28/11
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 245
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC013-035-041-280640-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTLER CONECUH CRENSHAW
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 245
VALID 280340Z - 280440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE PIB
TO 50 ESE MEI TO 40 N SEM TO 5 NNW GAD.
..GRAMS..04/28/11
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 245
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-013-015-019-021-025-027-029-035-037-041-047-085-099-115-
121-129-131-280440-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BUTLER CALHOUN
CHEROKEE CHILTON CLARKE
CLAY CLEBURNE CONECUH
COOSA CRENSHAW DALLAS
LOWNDES MONROE ST. CLAIR
TALLADEGA WASHINGTON WILCOX
$$
MSC041-111-280440-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GREENE PERRY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.