Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 244
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
815 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
DELAWARE
EASTERN MARYLAND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
EASTERN NEW YORK
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 815 PM
UNTIL 400 AM EDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF MASSENA NEW YORK TO 45 MILES SOUTH OF DOVER
DELAWARE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 235...WW 236...WW
237...WW 238...WW 239...WW 240...WW 241...WW 242...WW 243...
DISCUSSION...BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS OVER CNTRL PARTS OF NY/PA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD INTO THE HUDSON/DE RIVER VALLEYS WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS COMPARATIVELY MORE MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S. 00Z IAD/ALB SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM
AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA...TO 1000-1200 J/KG
OVER THE SOUTH. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT IN ADVANCE
OF UPSTREAM SYSTEM OVER THE OH VALLEY WITH ENVIRONMENT REMAINING
SUPPORTIVE OF BOWING AND SUPERCELL TYPE STRUCTURES. WHILE A BRIEF
TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24040.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 244 SEVERE TSTM DE MD NJ NY PA CW 280015Z - 280800Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
15ENE MSS/MASSENA NY/ - 45S DOV/DOVER DE/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /9NE MSS - 8NNE SBY/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
LAT...LON 45007343 38477444 38477648 45007568
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 244 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 244
VALID 280735Z - 280800Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE SYR
TO 40 NNE UCA TO 20 E MSV TO 40 SW AVP.
WW 244 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 280800Z AND WILL LIKELY BE
REPLACED WITH A NEW WW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 656.
..GRAMS..04/28/11
ATTN...WFO...PHI...OKX...ALY...BGM...BTV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 244
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC007-017-023-025-053-065-067-077-105-280800-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROOME CHENANGO CORTLAND
DELAWARE MADISON ONEIDA
ONONDAGA OTSEGO SULLIVAN
$$
PAC015-069-079-103-115-127-131-280800-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRADFORD LACKAWANNA LUZERNE
PIKE SUSQUEHANNA WAYNE
WYOMING
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 244
VALID 280625Z - 280740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE SYR
TO 50 E ART TO 20 E MSV TO 45 SW AVP.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 652.
..GRAMS..04/28/11
ATTN...WFO...PHI...OKX...ALY...BGM...BTV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 244
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC007-017-023-025-053-065-067-077-105-280740-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROOME CHENANGO CORTLAND
DELAWARE MADISON ONEIDA
ONONDAGA OTSEGO SULLIVAN
$$
PAC015-069-079-103-115-127-131-280740-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRADFORD LACKAWANNA LUZERNE
PIKE SUSQUEHANNA WAYNE
WYOMING
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 244
VALID 280340Z - 280440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE SYR TO
45 WSW SLK TO 10 ENE MSS.
..GRAMS..04/28/11
ATTN...WFO...PHI...OKX...ALY...BGM...BTV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 244
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DEC001-003-005-280440-
DE
. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX
$$
MDC011-015-029-035-041-280440-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAROLINE CECIL KENT
QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT
$$
NJC019-021-027-031-035-037-041-280440-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HUNTERDON MERCER MORRIS
PASSAIC SOMERSET SUSSEX
WARREN
$$
NYC001-007-017-019-023-025-031-033-035-039-041-043-053-057-065-
067-071-077-091-093-095-105-111-113-280440-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBANY BROOME CHENANGO
CLINTON CORTLAND DELAWARE
ESSEX FRANKLIN FULTON
GREENE HAMILTON HERKIMER
MADISON MONTGOMERY ONEIDA
ONONDAGA ORANGE OTSEGO
SARATOGA SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE
SULLIVAN ULSTER WARREN
$$
PAC011-017-025-029-045-069-077-079-089-091-095-101-103-115-127-
131-280440-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKS BUCKS CARBON
CHESTER DELAWARE LACKAWANNA
LEHIGH LUZERNE MONROE
MONTGOMERY NORTHAMPTON PHILADELPHIA
PIKE SUSQUEHANNA WAYNE
WYOMING
$$
ANZ430-280440-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 244
VALID 280250Z - 280340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 647.
..GRAMS..04/28/11
ATTN...WFO...PHI...OKX...ALY...BGM...BTV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 244
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DEC001-003-005-280340-
DE
. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX
$$
MDC011-015-029-035-041-280340-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAROLINE CECIL KENT
QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT
$$
NJC019-021-027-031-035-037-041-280340-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HUNTERDON MERCER MORRIS
PASSAIC SOMERSET SUSSEX
WARREN
$$
NYC001-007-017-019-023-025-031-033-035-039-041-043-053-057-065-
067-071-077-089-091-093-095-105-111-113-280340-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBANY BROOME CHENANGO
CLINTON CORTLAND DELAWARE
ESSEX FRANKLIN FULTON
GREENE HAMILTON HERKIMER
MADISON MONTGOMERY ONEIDA
ONONDAGA ORANGE OTSEGO
ST. LAWRENCE SARATOGA SCHENECTADY
SCHOHARIE SULLIVAN ULSTER
WARREN
$$
PAC011-017-025-029-045-069-077-079-089-091-095-101-103-115-127-
131-280340-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKS BUCKS CARBON
CHESTER DELAWARE LACKAWANNA
LEHIGH LUZERNE MONROE
MONTGOMERY NORTHAMPTON PHILADELPHIA
PIKE SUSQUEHANNA WAYNE
WYOMING
$$
ANZ430-280340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 244
VALID 280135Z - 280240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GRAMS..04/28/11
ATTN...WFO...PHI...OKX...ALY...BGM...BTV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 244
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DEC001-003-005-280240-
DE
. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX
$$
MDC011-015-029-035-041-280240-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAROLINE CECIL KENT
QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT
$$
NJC019-021-027-031-035-037-041-280240-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HUNTERDON MERCER MORRIS
PASSAIC SOMERSET SUSSEX
WARREN
$$
NYC001-007-017-019-023-025-031-033-035-039-041-043-053-057-065-
067-071-077-089-091-093-095-105-111-113-280240-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBANY BROOME CHENANGO
CLINTON CORTLAND DELAWARE
ESSEX FRANKLIN FULTON
GREENE HAMILTON HERKIMER
MADISON MONTGOMERY ONEIDA
ONONDAGA ORANGE OTSEGO
ST. LAWRENCE SARATOGA SCHENECTADY
SCHOHARIE SULLIVAN ULSTER
WARREN
$$
PAC011-017-025-029-045-069-077-079-089-091-095-101-103-115-127-
131-280240-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKS BUCKS CARBON
CHESTER DELAWARE LACKAWANNA
LEHIGH LUZERNE MONROE
MONTGOMERY NORTHAMPTON PHILADELPHIA
PIKE SUSQUEHANNA WAYNE
WYOMING
$$
ANZ430-280240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 244
VALID 280040Z - 280140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..04/28/11
ATTN...WFO...PHI...OKX...ALY...BGM...BTV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 244
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DEC001-003-005-280140-
DE
. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX
$$
MDC011-015-029-035-041-280140-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAROLINE CECIL KENT
QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT
$$
NJC019-021-027-031-035-037-041-280140-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HUNTERDON MERCER MORRIS
PASSAIC SOMERSET SUSSEX
WARREN
$$
NYC001-007-017-019-023-025-031-033-035-039-041-043-053-057-065-
067-071-077-089-091-093-095-105-111-113-280140-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBANY BROOME CHENANGO
CLINTON CORTLAND DELAWARE
ESSEX FRANKLIN FULTON
GREENE HAMILTON HERKIMER
MADISON MONTGOMERY ONEIDA
ONONDAGA ORANGE OTSEGO
ST. LAWRENCE SARATOGA SCHENECTADY
SCHOHARIE SULLIVAN ULSTER
WARREN
$$
PAC011-017-025-029-045-069-077-079-089-091-095-101-103-115-127-
131-280140-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKS BUCKS CARBON
CHESTER DELAWARE LACKAWANNA
LEHIGH LUZERNE MONROE
MONTGOMERY NORTHAMPTON PHILADELPHIA
PIKE SUSQUEHANNA WAYNE
WYOMING
$$
ANZ430-280140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.