Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 236
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
310 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME WESTERN MARYLAND
WESTERN NEW YORK
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
EXTREME NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
LAKE ERIE
LAKE ONTARIO
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 310 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH OF ROCHESTER
NEW YORK TO 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF ALTOONA PENNSYLVANIA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 231...WW 232...WW
233...WW 234...WW 235...
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOON
OVER WESTERN PA AND SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODERATE
INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL
PROMOTE ORGANIZED STORMS WITH SUPERCELLS/BOWS POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL SHEAR IS PRESENT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 236 TORNADO MD NY PA WV LE LO 271910Z - 280200Z
AXIS..100 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
50N ROC/ROCHESTER NY/ - 50SSW AOO/ALTOONA PA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 85NM E/W /70NE BUF - 43S JST/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
LAT...LON 43837566 39617679 39618055 43837968
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 236 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 236
VALID 280135Z - 280200Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW AVP
TO 10 WSW IPT TO 15 SW ART.
WW 236 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 280200Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 643.
..GRAMS..04/28/11
ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 236
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC011-015-097-099-107-109-280200-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAYUGA CHEMUNG SCHUYLER
SENECA TIOGA TOMPKINS
$$
PAC015-113-280200-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRADFORD SULLIVAN
$$
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 236
VALID 280040Z - 280140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E MGW TO
15 NE DUJ TO 20 SSW BUF TO 70 NNW BUF.
..BROYLES..04/28/11
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...BUF...BGM...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 236
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC003-009-011-015-029-037-051-055-063-069-073-097-099-101-107-
109-117-121-123-280140-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGANY CATTARAUGUS CAYUGA
CHEMUNG ERIE GENESEE
LIVINGSTON MONROE NIAGARA
ONTARIO ORLEANS SCHUYLER
SENECA STEUBEN TIOGA
TOMPKINS WAYNE WYOMING
YATES
$$
PAC001-009-013-015-021-023-027-033-035-037-041-043-047-055-057-
061-067-071-075-081-083-087-093-097-099-105-107-109-111-113-117-
119-133-280140-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BEDFORD BLAIR
BRADFORD CAMBRIA CAMERON
CENTRE CLEARFIELD CLINTON
COLUMBIA CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN
ELK FRANKLIN FULTON
HUNTINGDON JUNIATA LANCASTER
LEBANON LYCOMING MCKEAN
MIFFLIN MONTOUR NORTHUMBERLAND
PERRY POTTER SCHUYLKILL
SNYDER SOMERSET SULLIVAN
TIOGA UNION YORK
$$
LEZ020-LOZ030-042-043-062-063-280140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER
NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY
NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 236
VALID 272340Z - 280040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE MGW
TO 25 SSE DUJ TO 50 N ERI.
..BROYLES..04/27/11
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...BUF...BGM...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 236
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC003-009-011-013-015-029-037-051-055-063-069-073-097-099-101-
107-109-117-121-123-280040-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGANY CATTARAUGUS CAYUGA
CHAUTAUQUA CHEMUNG ERIE
GENESEE LIVINGSTON MONROE
NIAGARA ONTARIO ORLEANS
SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN
TIOGA TOMPKINS WAYNE
WYOMING YATES
$$
PAC001-009-013-015-021-023-027-033-035-037-041-043-047-055-057-
061-067-071-075-081-083-087-093-097-099-105-107-109-111-113-117-
119-123-133-280040-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BEDFORD BLAIR
BRADFORD CAMBRIA CAMERON
CENTRE CLEARFIELD CLINTON
COLUMBIA CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN
ELK FRANKLIN FULTON
HUNTINGDON JUNIATA LANCASTER
LEBANON LYCOMING MCKEAN
MIFFLIN MONTOUR NORTHUMBERLAND
PERRY POTTER SCHUYLKILL
SNYDER SOMERSET SULLIVAN
TIOGA UNION WARREN
YORK
$$
LEZ020-040-041-061-LOZ030-042-043-062-063-280040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER
NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY
NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER
RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK NY
DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO NY
RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY EXTENDING FROM 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 236
VALID 272240Z - 272340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E MGW TO
30 S DUJ TO 20 NW DUJ TO 30 N ERI.
..BROYLES..04/27/11
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...BUF...BGM...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 236
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC003-009-011-013-015-029-037-051-055-063-069-073-097-099-101-
107-109-117-121-123-272340-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGANY CATTARAUGUS CAYUGA
CHAUTAUQUA CHEMUNG ERIE
GENESEE LIVINGSTON MONROE
NIAGARA ONTARIO ORLEANS
SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN
TIOGA TOMPKINS WAYNE
WYOMING YATES
$$
PAC001-009-013-015-021-023-027-033-035-037-041-043-047-055-057-
061-067-071-075-081-083-087-093-097-099-105-107-109-111-113-117-
119-123-133-272340-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BEDFORD BLAIR
BRADFORD CAMBRIA CAMERON
CENTRE CLEARFIELD CLINTON
COLUMBIA CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN
ELK FRANKLIN FULTON
HUNTINGDON JUNIATA LANCASTER
LEBANON LYCOMING MCKEAN
MIFFLIN MONTOUR NORTHUMBERLAND
PERRY POTTER SCHUYLKILL
SNYDER SOMERSET SULLIVAN
TIOGA UNION WARREN
YORK
$$
LEZ020-040-041-061-LOZ030-042-043-062-063-272340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER
NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY
NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER
RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK NY
DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO NY
RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY EXTENDING FROM 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 236
VALID 272145Z - 272240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..04/27/11
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...BUF...BGM...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 236
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MDC023-272240-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GARRETT
$$
NYC003-009-011-013-015-029-037-051-055-063-069-073-097-099-101-
107-109-117-121-123-272240-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGANY CATTARAUGUS CAYUGA
CHAUTAUQUA CHEMUNG ERIE
GENESEE LIVINGSTON MONROE
NIAGARA ONTARIO ORLEANS
SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN
TIOGA TOMPKINS WAYNE
WYOMING YATES
$$
PAC001-003-005-007-009-013-015-019-021-023-027-031-033-035-037-
041-043-047-051-053-055-057-059-061-063-065-067-071-073-075-081-
083-085-087-093-097-099-105-107-109-111-113-117-119-121-123-125-
129-133-272240-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG
BEAVER BEDFORD BLAIR
BRADFORD BUTLER CAMBRIA
CAMERON CENTRE CLARION
CLEARFIELD CLINTON COLUMBIA
CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN ELK
FAYETTE FOREST FRANKLIN
FULTON GREENE HUNTINGDON
INDIANA JEFFERSON JUNIATA
LANCASTER LAWRENCE LEBANON
LYCOMING MCKEAN MERCER
MIFFLIN MONTOUR NORTHUMBERLAND
PERRY POTTER SCHUYLKILL
SNYDER SOMERSET SULLIVAN
TIOGA UNION VENANGO
WARREN WASHINGTON WESTMORELAND
YORK
$$
WVC049-061-077-093-272240-
WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MARION MONONGALIA PRESTON
TUCKER
$$
LEZ020-040-041-061-LOZ030-042-043-062-063-272240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER
NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY
NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER
RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK NY
DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO NY
RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY EXTENDING FROM 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 236
VALID 272045Z - 272140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..04/27/11
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...BUF...BGM...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 236
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MDC023-272140-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GARRETT
$$
NYC003-009-011-013-015-029-037-051-055-063-069-073-097-099-101-
107-109-117-121-123-272140-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGANY CATTARAUGUS CAYUGA
CHAUTAUQUA CHEMUNG ERIE
GENESEE LIVINGSTON MONROE
NIAGARA ONTARIO ORLEANS
SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN
TIOGA TOMPKINS WAYNE
WYOMING YATES
$$
PAC001-003-005-007-009-013-015-019-021-023-027-031-033-035-037-
041-043-047-051-053-055-057-059-061-063-065-067-071-073-075-081-
083-085-087-093-097-099-105-107-109-111-113-117-119-121-123-125-
129-133-272140-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG
BEAVER BEDFORD BLAIR
BRADFORD BUTLER CAMBRIA
CAMERON CENTRE CLARION
CLEARFIELD CLINTON COLUMBIA
CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN ELK
FAYETTE FOREST FRANKLIN
FULTON GREENE HUNTINGDON
INDIANA JEFFERSON JUNIATA
LANCASTER LAWRENCE LEBANON
LYCOMING MCKEAN MERCER
MIFFLIN MONTOUR NORTHUMBERLAND
PERRY POTTER SCHUYLKILL
SNYDER SOMERSET SULLIVAN
TIOGA UNION VENANGO
WARREN WASHINGTON WESTMORELAND
YORK
$$
WVC049-061-077-093-272140-
WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MARION MONONGALIA PRESTON
TUCKER
$$
LEZ020-040-041-061-LOZ030-042-043-062-063-272140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER
NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY
NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER
RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK NY
DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO NY
RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY EXTENDING FROM 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.