Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 226
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
455 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
A SMALL PART OF WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 455 AM UNTIL 1000 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF MONTICELLO ARKANSAS TO 40 MILES SOUTH OF SHREVEPORT
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 222. WATCH NUMBER 222 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT
AFTER 455 AM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 223...WW 224...WW 225...
DISCUSSION...ELEVATED CONVECTION IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL WAA ATOP A COLD POOL FROM EARLIER STORMS
ACROSS LA/MS/AR. A FEED OF RICH MOISTURE FROM S OF THE BOUNDARY
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE INSTABILITY...WHILE DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
IS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS COULD
PENETRATE THE SHALLOW COLD POOL WITH ANY CELL MERGERS AND UPSCALE
GROWTH INTO CLUSTERS. THE SRN PART OF THE WATCH AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITOR FOR MORE SURFACE-BASED STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26040.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 226 SEVERE TSTM AR LA MS TX 270955Z - 271500Z
AXIS..100 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40NNW LLQ/MONTICELLO AR/ - 40S SHV/SHREVEPORT LA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 85NM E/W /31SSE LIT - 54S EIC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.
REPLACES WW 222..AL AR LA MS
LAT...LON 34159026 31869212 31869552 34159376
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 226 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 226
VALID 271440Z - 271500Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
WW 226 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 271500Z.
..SMITH..04/27/11
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 226
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-011-013-017-025-027-039-041-043-053-057-061-069-073-
079-081-091-099-103-133-139-271500-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY
CALHOUN CHICOT CLEVELAND
COLUMBIA DALLAS DESHA
DREW GRANT HEMPSTEAD
HOWARD JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE
LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER MILLER
NEVADA OUACHITA SEVIER
UNION
$$
LAC013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-035-041-049-061-065-067-073-
081-083-107-111-119-123-127-271500-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CALDWELL CATAHOULA CLAIBORNE
CONCORDIA DE SOTO EAST CARROLL
FRANKLIN JACKSON LINCOLN
MADISON MOREHOUSE OUACHITA
RED RIVER RICHLAND TENSAS
UNION WEBSTER WEST CARROLL
WINN
$$
MSC011-133-151-271500-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR SUNFLOWER WASHINGTON
$$
TXC037-063-067-073-159-183-203-315-343-365-401-423-449-459-499-
271500-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
CHEROKEE FRANKLIN GREGG
HARRISON MARION MORRIS
PANOLA RUSK SMITH
TITUS UPSHUR WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 226
VALID 271345Z - 271440Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SMITH..04/27/11
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 226
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-011-013-017-025-027-039-041-043-053-057-061-069-073-
079-081-091-099-103-133-139-271440-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY
CALHOUN CHICOT CLEVELAND
COLUMBIA DALLAS DESHA
DREW GRANT HEMPSTEAD
HOWARD JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE
LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER MILLER
NEVADA OUACHITA SEVIER
UNION
$$
LAC013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-035-041-049-061-065-067-073-
081-083-107-111-119-123-127-271440-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CALDWELL CATAHOULA CLAIBORNE
CONCORDIA DE SOTO EAST CARROLL
FRANKLIN JACKSON LINCOLN
MADISON MOREHOUSE OUACHITA
RED RIVER RICHLAND TENSAS
UNION WEBSTER WEST CARROLL
WINN
$$
MSC011-133-151-271440-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR SUNFLOWER WASHINGTON
$$
TXC037-063-067-073-159-183-203-315-343-365-401-423-449-459-499-
271440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
CHEROKEE FRANKLIN GREGG
HARRISON MARION MORRIS
PANOLA RUSK SMITH
TITUS UPSHUR WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 226
VALID 271235Z - 271340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..COHEN..04/27/11
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 226
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-011-013-017-019-025-027-039-041-043-053-057-059-061-
069-073-079-081-091-099-103-109-133-139-271340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY
CALHOUN CHICOT CLARK
CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS
DESHA DREW GRANT
HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD
JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LINCOLN
LITTLE RIVER MILLER NEVADA
OUACHITA PIKE SEVIER
UNION
$$
LAC013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-035-041-049-061-065-067-073-
081-083-107-111-119-123-127-271340-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CALDWELL CATAHOULA CLAIBORNE
CONCORDIA DE SOTO EAST CARROLL
FRANKLIN JACKSON LINCOLN
MADISON MOREHOUSE OUACHITA
RED RIVER RICHLAND TENSAS
UNION WEBSTER WEST CARROLL
WINN
$$
MSC011-133-151-271340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR SUNFLOWER WASHINGTON
$$
TXC037-063-067-073-159-183-203-315-343-365-401-423-449-459-499-
271340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
CHEROKEE FRANKLIN GREGG
HARRISON MARION MORRIS
PANOLA RUSK SMITH
TITUS UPSHUR WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 226
VALID 271035Z - 271140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DIAL..04/27/11
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 226
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-011-013-017-019-025-027-039-041-043-053-057-059-061-
069-073-079-081-091-099-103-109-133-139-271140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY
CALHOUN CHICOT CLARK
CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS
DESHA DREW GRANT
HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD
JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LINCOLN
LITTLE RIVER MILLER NEVADA
OUACHITA PIKE SEVIER
UNION
$$
LAC013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-035-041-049-061-065-067-073-
081-083-107-111-119-123-127-271140-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CALDWELL CATAHOULA CLAIBORNE
CONCORDIA DE SOTO EAST CARROLL
FRANKLIN JACKSON LINCOLN
MADISON MOREHOUSE OUACHITA
RED RIVER RICHLAND TENSAS
UNION WEBSTER WEST CARROLL
WINN
$$
MSC011-133-151-271140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR SUNFLOWER WASHINGTON
$$
TXC037-063-067-073-159-183-203-315-343-365-401-423-449-459-499-
271140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
CHEROKEE FRANKLIN GREGG
HARRISON MARION MORRIS
PANOLA RUSK SMITH
TITUS UPSHUR WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.