Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 227
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
510 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KENTUCKY
MIDDLE AND SOUTHEASTERN TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 510 AM UNTIL 1000 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
LEXINGTON KENTUCKY TO 50 MILES SOUTH OF NASHVILLE TENNESSEE. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 224. WATCH NUMBER 224 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
510 AM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 225...WW 226...
DISCUSSION...SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND BOWING
STRUCTURES WILL ADVANCE EWD THROUGH CNTRL KY AND MIDDLE TN DURING
THE EARLY MORNING. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...BUT ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...DIAL
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 227 TORNADO KY TN 271010Z - 271500Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
30NNE LEX/LEXINGTON KY/ - 50S BNA/NASHVILLE TN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /38SSE CVG - 44S BNA/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
REPLACES WW 224..AR KY MO MS TN
LAT...LON 38438337 35408569 35408766 38438540
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 227 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 227
VALID 271435Z - 271500Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE LEX
TO 40 NNW JKL TO 30 SW CSV TO 50 WNW CHA.
WW 227 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 271500Z.
..SMITH..04/27/11
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...MRX...HUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 227
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TNC007-115-153-271500-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLEDSOE MARION SEQUATCHIE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 227
VALID 271350Z - 271440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW CSV
TO 50 W LOZ TO 35 SSE LEX TO 35 NE LEX.
..SMITH..04/27/11
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...MRX...HUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 227
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC017-049-151-181-271440-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOURBON CLARK MADISON
NICHOLAS
$$
TNC007-035-049-061-115-133-137-153-175-271440-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLEDSOE CUMBERLAND FENTRESS
GRUNDY MARION OVERTON
PICKETT SEQUATCHIE VAN BUREN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 227
VALID 271240Z - 271340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW CHA TO
50 NNW CSV TO 55 SSE SDF TO 25 WSW LEX TO 15 NW LEX TO 30 NNW LEX.
..DIAL..04/27/11
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...MRX...HUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 227
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC001-005-017-021-045-049-053-057-067-073-079-097-113-137-151-
167-181-207-209-239-271340-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ANDERSON BOURBON
BOYLE CASEY CLARK
CLINTON CUMBERLAND FAYETTE
FRANKLIN GARRARD HARRISON
JESSAMINE LINCOLN MADISON
MERCER NICHOLAS RUSSELL
SCOTT WOODFORD
$$
TNC007-035-049-061-115-133-137-141-153-175-185-271340-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLEDSOE CUMBERLAND FENTRESS
GRUNDY MARION OVERTON
PICKETT PUTNAM SEQUATCHIE
VAN BUREN WHITE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 227
VALID 271155Z - 271240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE HSV TO
45 SE BNA TO 45 SE BWG TO 50 ENE BWG TO 30 SE SDF TO 15 ESE SDF.
..DIAL..04/27/11
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...MRX...HUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 227
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC001-005-017-021-045-049-053-057-067-073-079-087-097-103-113-
137-151-155-167-169-171-179-181-207-209-211-215-217-229-239-
271240-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ANDERSON BOURBON
BOYLE CASEY CLARK
CLINTON CUMBERLAND FAYETTE
FRANKLIN GARRARD GREEN
HARRISON HENRY JESSAMINE
LINCOLN MADISON MARION
MERCER METCALF MONROE
NELSON NICHOLAS RUSSELL
SCOTT SHELBY SPENCER
TAYLOR WASHINGTON WOODFORD
$$
TNC007-027-031-035-041-049-061-065-087-111-115-133-137-141-143-
153-159-175-177-185-271240-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLEDSOE CLAY COFFEE
CUMBERLAND DE KALB FENTRESS
GRUNDY HAMILTON JACKSON
MACON MARION OVERTON
PICKETT PUTNAM RHEA
SEQUATCHIE SMITH VAN BUREN
WARREN WHITE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.