Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 203
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
230 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 230 PM UNTIL 800
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF CLARKSVILLE TENNESSEE TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF BOWLING
GREEN KENTUCKY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 200...WW 201...WW 202...
DISCUSSION...A LONG-LIVED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN TN
WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
BOWING STRUCTURES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTION WILL POSE
A RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN
THE STRONGER CORES.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 203 SEVERE TSTM KY TN 251930Z - 260100Z
AXIS..45 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
60SW CKV/CLARKSVILLE TN/ - 40ESE BWG/BOWLING GREEN KY/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 40NM N/S /55E DYR - 35ESE BWG/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 36638818 37408575 36098575 35348818
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 203 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 203
VALID 252240Z - 252340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE BWG
TO 15 W BWG TO 30 NE HOP.
..ROGERS..04/25/11
ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 203
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC009-031-061-085-099-183-227-252340-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARREN BUTLER EDMONSON
GRAYSON HART OHIO
WARREN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 203
VALID 252140Z - 252240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..ROGERS..04/25/11
ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 203
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC003-009-047-141-213-219-221-227-252240-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BARREN CHRISTIAN
LOGAN SIMPSON TODD
TRIGG WARREN
$$
TNC005-021-037-043-081-083-085-101-111-119-125-135-147-149-159-
161-165-169-187-189-252240-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CHEATHAM DAVIDSON
DICKSON HICKMAN HOUSTON
HUMPHREYS LEWIS MACON
MAURY MONTGOMERY PERRY
ROBERTSON RUTHERFORD SMITH
STEWART SUMNER TROUSDALE
WILLIAMSON WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 203
VALID 252035Z - 252140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GARNER..04/25/11
ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 203
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC003-009-047-141-213-219-221-227-252140-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BARREN CHRISTIAN
LOGAN SIMPSON TODD
TRIGG WARREN
$$
TNC005-021-037-043-081-083-085-101-111-119-125-135-147-149-159-
161-165-169-187-189-252140-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CHEATHAM DAVIDSON
DICKSON HICKMAN HOUSTON
HUMPHREYS LEWIS MACON
MAURY MONTGOMERY PERRY
ROBERTSON RUTHERFORD SMITH
STEWART SUMNER TROUSDALE
WILLIAMSON WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.