Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 200
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
915 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 915 AM UNTIL 300
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF MEMPHIS TENNESSEE TO 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF TUPELO
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 199...
DISCUSSION...AN ORGANIZED BOWING MCS IS TRACKING RAPIDLY EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL AR. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ACTIVITY
AS IT MOVES ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO PORTIONS OF WEST TN AND
NORTHERN MS. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT LARGE HAIL IS
ALSO A POSSIBILITY.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25040.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 200 SEVERE TSTM AR MS TN 251415Z - 252000Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
75WSW MEM/MEMPHIS TN/ - 40NE TUP/TUPELO MS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /49E LIT - 39W MSL/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
LAT...LON 35349119 35408826 33958826 33889119
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 200 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 200
VALID 251925Z - 252040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE TUP
TO 10 SSW TUP TO 25 NNW UOX TO 35 NE MEM.
..GARNER..04/25/11
ATTN...WFO...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 200
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MSC003-009-057-081-093-117-139-141-145-252040-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON ITAWAMBA
LEE MARSHALL PRENTISS
TIPPAH TISHOMINGO UNION
$$
TNC017-023-033-039-047-053-069-071-075-077-079-109-113-183-
252040-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CHESTER CROCKETT
DECATUR FAYETTE GIBSON
HARDEMAN HARDIN HAYWOOD
HENDERSON HENRY MCNAIRY
MADISON WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 200
VALID 251820Z - 251940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E PBF TO
25 NNW MEM.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 570
..GARNER..04/25/11
ATTN...WFO...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 200
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MSC003-009-013-017-027-033-057-071-081-093-095-107-115-117-119-
135-137-139-141-143-145-161-251940-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON CALHOUN
CHICKASAW COAHOMA DESOTO
ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE LEE
MARSHALL MONROE PANOLA
PONTOTOC PRENTISS QUITMAN
TALLAHATCHIE TATE TIPPAH
TISHOMINGO TUNICA UNION
YALOBUSHA
$$
TNC017-023-033-039-047-053-069-071-075-077-109-113-157-167-
251940-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CHESTER CROCKETT
DECATUR FAYETTE GIBSON
HARDEMAN HARDIN HAYWOOD
HENDERSON MCNAIRY MADISON
SHELBY TIPTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 200
VALID 251600Z - 251740Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..04/25/11
ATTN...WFO...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 200
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC035-077-107-123-251740-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRITTENDEN LEE PHILLIPS
ST. FRANCIS
$$
MSC003-009-013-017-027-033-057-071-081-093-095-107-115-117-119-
135-137-139-141-143-145-161-251740-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON CALHOUN
CHICKASAW COAHOMA DESOTO
ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE LEE
MARSHALL MONROE PANOLA
PONTOTOC PRENTISS QUITMAN
TALLAHATCHIE TATE TIPPAH
TISHOMINGO TUNICA UNION
YALOBUSHA
$$
TNC047-069-071-109-157-251740-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FAYETTE HARDEMAN HARDIN
MCNAIRY SHELBY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.