Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 199
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
445 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING FROM 445 AM UNTIL 1100 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTH OF
DURANT OKLAHOMA TO 15 MILES NORTH OF EL DORADO ARKANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 198. WATCH NUMBER 198 WILL NOT
BE IN EFFECT AFTER 445 AM CDT.
DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING WHILE MOVING EWD INVOF OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT IN
N TX/SE OK AND AN E-W OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN AR...AND IN
ADVANCE OF A MIDLEVEL TROUGH EJECTING EWD FROM NM. A FEED OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE S WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND
HELP MAINTAIN THE CONVECTION AND A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 199 SEVERE TSTM AR LA OK TX 250945Z - 251600Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
50S DUA/DURANT OK/ - 15N ELD/EL DORADO AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM N/S /38NE DFW - 11NNW ELD/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.
REPLACES WW 198..TX
LAT...LON 34389640 34599281 32279281 32069640
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 199 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 199
VALID 251240Z - 251340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E DAL TO
10 SW PRX TO 20 E PRX TO 15 W DEQ TO 30 NNW DEQ.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 566
..DIAL..04/25/11
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 199
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC013-019-027-039-051-057-059-061-073-081-091-097-099-103-109-
113-127-133-139-251340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALHOUN CLARK COLUMBIA
DALLAS GARLAND HEMPSTEAD
HOT SPRING HOWARD LAFAYETTE
LITTLE RIVER MILLER MONTGOMERY
NEVADA OUACHITA PIKE
POLK SCOTT SEVIER
UNION
$$
LAC015-017-027-119-251340-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE
WEBSTER
$$
OKC089-251340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCCURTAIN
$$
TXC037-063-067-119-139-159-183-203-213-223-257-277-315-343-349-
379-387-423-449-459-467-499-251340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
DELTA ELLIS FRANKLIN
GREGG HARRISON HENDERSON
HOPKINS KAUFMAN LAMAR
MARION MORRIS NAVARRO
RAINS RED RIVER SMITH
TITUS UPSHUR VAN ZANDT
WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 199
VALID 251145Z - 251240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E DAL TO
10 SW PRX TO 25 E PRX TO 15 WNW DEQ TO 30 NNW DEQ.
..DIAL..04/25/11
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 199
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC013-019-027-039-051-057-059-061-073-081-091-097-099-103-109-
113-127-133-139-251240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALHOUN CLARK COLUMBIA
DALLAS GARLAND HEMPSTEAD
HOT SPRING HOWARD LAFAYETTE
LITTLE RIVER MILLER MONTGOMERY
NEVADA OUACHITA PIKE
POLK SCOTT SEVIER
UNION
$$
LAC015-017-027-119-251240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE
WEBSTER
$$
OKC079-089-251240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LE FLORE MCCURTAIN
$$
TXC037-063-067-119-139-159-183-203-213-223-257-277-315-343-349-
379-387-423-449-459-467-499-251240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
DELTA ELLIS FRANKLIN
GREGG HARRISON HENDERSON
HOPKINS KAUFMAN LAMAR
MARION MORRIS NAVARRO
RAINS RED RIVER SMITH
TITUS UPSHUR VAN ZANDT
WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.