Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 148
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 330 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST OF
RUSSELL KANSAS TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MANHATTAN KANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 146...WW 147...
DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL
PRIMARILY BE ELEVATED ABOVE A RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.
HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ABOVE THE
INVERSION WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER CELLS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 148 SEVERE TSTM KS 102030Z - 110300Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
30W RSL/RUSSELL KS/ - 40ESE MHK/MANHATTAN KS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM N/S /46ESE HLC - 69WSW MKC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 39799937 39849598 37979598 37919937
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 148 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 148
VALID 110140Z - 110240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW EMP TO
20 SSE MHK TO 25 SW TOP.
..STOPPKOTTE..05/11/10
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 148
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC003-031-059-111-139-197-110240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON COFFEY FRANKLIN
LYON OSAGE WABAUNSEE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 148
VALID 110040Z - 110140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE ICT TO
25 SW MHK TO 20 SW TOP.
..STOPPKOTTE..05/11/10
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 148
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC003-017-031-059-111-127-139-197-110140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON CHASE COFFEY
FRANKLIN LYON MORRIS
OSAGE WABAUNSEE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 148
VALID 102355Z - 110040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE HUT TO
15 N SLN TO 30 SSW BIE.
..STOPPKOTTE..05/10/10
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 148
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC003-017-031-041-059-061-111-113-115-127-139-169-197-110040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON CHASE COFFEY
DICKINSON FRANKLIN GEARY
LYON MCPHERSON MARION
MORRIS OSAGE SALINE
WABAUNSEE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 148
VALID 102255Z - 102340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..STOPPKOTTE..05/10/10
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 148
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC009-017-027-029-041-053-061-089-105-111-113-115-117-123-127-
131-141-143-147-149-157-159-161-163-167-169-183-197-201-
102340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON CHASE CLAY
CLOUD DICKINSON ELLSWORTH
GEARY JEWELL LINCOLN
LYON MCPHERSON MARION
MARSHALL MITCHELL MORRIS
NEMAHA OSBORNE OTTAWA
PHILLIPS POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC
RICE RILEY ROOKS
RUSSELL SALINE SMITH
WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 148
VALID 102140Z - 102240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..STOPPKOTTE..05/10/10
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 148
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC009-017-027-029-041-053-061-089-105-111-113-115-117-123-127-
131-141-143-147-149-157-159-161-163-167-169-183-197-201-
102240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON CHASE CLAY
CLOUD DICKINSON ELLSWORTH
GEARY JEWELL LINCOLN
LYON MCPHERSON MARION
MARSHALL MITCHELL MORRIS
NEMAHA OSBORNE OTTAWA
PHILLIPS POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC
RICE RILEY ROOKS
RUSSELL SALINE SMITH
WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.