Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 657
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
120 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM UNTIL
800 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF
LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY TO 65 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF LONDON
KENTUCKY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 656...
DISCUSSION...LARGE MCS WITH ASSOCIATED DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL SAG SSEWD ACROSS CENTRAL KY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO
AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND ALONG OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER
STORMS. WRN EXTENT OF MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE HINDERED BY
CAPPING...ALTHOUGH THREAT FOR WWD EXPANSION TOWARDS THE EVV/BWG
AREAS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE DAY AS CAP WEAKENS ACROSS
WRN KY. WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD INTO CENTRAL
KY...WITH FLASH FLOODING REMAINING AN ENHANCED THREAT WITHIN ERN
PORTION OF WW.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 33035.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 657 SEVERE TSTM IN KY 041720Z - 050000Z
AXIS..100 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25NW SDF/LOUISVILLE KY/ - 65WSW LOZ/LONDON KY/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 85NM E/W /30NW LOU - 54WSW LOZ/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 33035.
LAT...LON 38418420 36708336 36708697 38418790
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 657 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 657
VALID 042255Z - 042340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S EVV TO
25 E OWB TO 20 NNE BWG TO 35 SE BWG.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1776.
..EDWARDS..08/04/09
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK...JKL...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 657
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC003-031-061-085-141-183-213-227-042340-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BUTLER EDMONSON
GRAYSON LOGAN OHIO
SIMPSON WARREN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 657
VALID 042145Z - 042240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW BMG
TO 45 E OWB TO 30 E BWG TO 50 WSW LOZ TO 20 SSE LOZ TO 35 S JKL.
..EDWARDS..08/04/09
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK...JKL...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 657
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC003-009-013-027-031-053-057-061-085-091-121-141-147-169-171-
183-213-227-231-235-042240-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BARREN BELL
BRECKINRIDGE BUTLER CLINTON
CUMBERLAND EDMONSON GRAYSON
HANCOCK KNOX LOGAN
MCCREARY METCALFE MONROE
OHIO SIMPSON WARREN
WAYNE WHITLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 657
VALID 042030Z - 042140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..08/04/09
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK...JKL...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 657
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC001-003-005-009-013-017-021-027-029-031-045-049-051-053-057-
061-065-067-073-079-085-087-091-093-097-099-109-113-121-123-125-
129-137-141-147-151-155-163-167-169-171-173-179-181-183-189-197-
199-203-207-209-211-213-215-217-227-229-231-235-239-042140-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON
BARREN BELL BOURBON
BOYLE BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT
BUTLER CASEY CLARK
CLAY CLINTON CUMBERLAND
EDMONSON ESTILL FAYETTE
FRANKLIN GARRARD GRAYSON
GREEN HANCOCK HARDIN
HARRISON HART JACKSON
JESSAMINE KNOX LARUE
LAUREL LEE LINCOLN
LOGAN MCCREARY MADISON
MARION MEADE MERCER
METCALFE MONROE MONTGOMERY
NELSON NICHOLAS OHIO
OWSLEY POWELL PULASKI
ROCKCASTLE RUSSELL SCOTT
SHELBY SIMPSON SPENCER
TAYLOR WARREN WASHINGTON
WAYNE WHITLEY WOODFORD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 657
VALID 041945Z - 042040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..08/04/09
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK...JKL...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 657
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC147-163-173-042040-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK
$$
KYC001-003-005-009-013-017-021-027-029-031-045-049-051-053-057-
059-061-065-067-073-079-085-087-091-093-097-099-101-109-113-121-
123-125-129-137-141-147-149-151-155-163-167-169-171-173-177-179-
181-183-189-197-199-203-207-209-211-213-215-217-227-229-231-235-
239-042040-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON
BARREN BELL BOURBON
BOYLE BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT
BUTLER CASEY CLARK
CLAY CLINTON CUMBERLAND
DAVIESS EDMONSON ESTILL
FAYETTE FRANKLIN GARRARD
GRAYSON GREEN HANCOCK
HARDIN HARRISON HART
HENDERSON JACKSON JESSAMINE
KNOX LARUE LAUREL
LEE LINCOLN LOGAN
MCCREARY MCLEAN MADISON
MARION MEADE MERCER
METCALFE MONROE MONTGOMERY
MUHLENBERG NELSON NICHOLAS
OHIO OWSLEY POWELL
PULASKI ROCKCASTLE RUSSELL
SCOTT SHELBY SIMPSON
SPENCER TAYLOR WARREN
WASHINGTON WAYNE WHITLEY
WOODFORD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 657
VALID 041850Z - 041940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..08/04/09
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK...JKL...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 657
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC147-163-173-041940-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK
$$
KYC001-003-005-009-013-017-021-027-029-031-045-049-051-053-057-
059-061-065-067-073-079-085-087-091-093-097-099-101-109-113-121-
123-125-129-137-141-147-149-151-155-163-167-169-171-173-177-179-
181-183-189-197-199-203-207-209-211-213-215-217-227-229-231-235-
239-041940-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON
BARREN BELL BOURBON
BOYLE BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT
BUTLER CASEY CLARK
CLAY CLINTON CUMBERLAND
DAVIESS EDMONSON ESTILL
FAYETTE FRANKLIN GARRARD
GRAYSON GREEN HANCOCK
HARDIN HARRISON HART
HENDERSON JACKSON JESSAMINE
KNOX LARUE LAUREL
LEE LINCOLN LOGAN
MCCREARY MCLEAN MADISON
MARION MEADE MERCER
METCALFE MONROE MONTGOMERY
MUHLENBERG NELSON NICHOLAS
OHIO OWSLEY POWELL
PULASKI ROCKCASTLE RUSSELL
SCOTT SHELBY SIMPSON
SPENCER TAYLOR WARREN
WASHINGTON WAYNE WHITLEY
WOODFORD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (80%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.