MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1776
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0545 PM CDT TUE AUG 04 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN APPALACHIANS REGION.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 657...659...
   
   VALID 042245Z - 050015Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   657...659...CONTINUES.
   
   WWS MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND CONVECTION INVOF LEADING EDGE OF COLD
   POOL.  AREAS S OF WWS ACROSS WRN NC...SERN TN AND NRN GA WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.  HOWEVER...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
   ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL HAS PEAKED...WHILE MORE ISOLATED/SPORADIC
   WIND DAMAGE STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR 2-3 MORE HOURS...PARTICULARLY
   OVER MOST EXPOSED SLOPES FACING NW OR N.
   
   PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY RICH LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S
   CONTRIBUTING TO MAINTENANCE OF NEARLY SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW
   PARCELS THROUGH FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER ONSET OF SFC DIABATIC
   COOLING.  THIS SUPPORTS CORRIDOR OF MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG FOR
   ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS OVER SERN TN AND FAR WRN NC...BASED ON MODIFIED
   RUC SOUNDINGS.  BUOYANCY DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT SWD OVER GA AS LAPSE
   RATES ALOFT WEAKEN.  SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ROBUST POSTCONVECTIVE
   COLD POOL WITH 3-5 MB PER 2 HR PRESSURE RISES AND 15-20 DEG F
   THERMAL COOLING.  ADDITIONAL TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND
   LEADING GUST FRONT -- WHICH HAS SURGED WELL AHEAD OF MOST
   CONVECTION.  COLD POOL ALSO IS SHIFTING SWD OUT FROM BENEATH
   STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS.  THEREFORE...SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD
   BECOME MORE MRGL AND INTERMITTENT WITH TIME IN ASSOCIATION WITH
   PRIMARY COLD POOL.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 08/04/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RNK...GSP...MRX...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...
   
   LAT...LON   38388675 37558610 36958577 36598527 36298452 36188381
               36268316 36488251 36798192 36568145 35818125 35358169
               34888224 34678294 34458408 34578529 35008631 35688669
               37468727 38018728 38388675