SPC AC 241639

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

   Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
   THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into
   tonight across the southern High Plains.  Large to very large hail
   is likely with the stronger storms.  A couple of tornadoes are
   possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts.

   ...Southern/Central Plains...
   Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped
   across the portions of the TX High Plains.  The 12z Del Rio raob
   showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest
   100-mb mean mixing ratio).  This upper-air raob sampled the moist
   axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the
   Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle.  Water-vapor
   imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across
   southern CO/northern NM.  The timing of this disturbance appears
   favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this
   afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline.  

   Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary
   layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. 
   Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt
   at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms.  Some
   relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably
   be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph
   enlargement.  Models show discrete storm development initially, with
   some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the
   evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity.  Large to
   giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late
   afternoon into the evening.  A couple of tornadoes are also possible
   during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the
   risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as
   this activity spreads east.  

   Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will
   probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level
   upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest
   KS.  A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with
   large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. 
   Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop
   through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly
   isolated. 

   Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into
   northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the
   afternoon.  Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be
   possible with this activity.  For short-term convective details,
   refer to MCD #540.  

   ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa...
   A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move
   northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today.
   Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is
   forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this
   afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread
   northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given
   sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization.

   ..Smith/Thornton.. 04/24/2025

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