Mesoscale Discussion 1625
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1254 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

   Areas affected...Northern Illinois...Northern Indiana...Southwest
   Michigan

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 534...535...537...

   Valid 150554Z - 150800Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 534, 535,
   537 continues.

   SUMMARY...A wind-damage and large-hail threat is expected to
   continue over the next few hours across parts of northern Illinois,
   northern Indiana and southwest Lower Michigan. As the severe threat
   moves southeastward, WW 535 may need to be extended eastward.

   DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery shows a linear
   MCS in northern Illinois and northwestern Indiana, which is located
   along and just to the north of an east-to-west axis of instability.
   Along this axis, MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 2500 to 3500
   J/kg range. In addition to the instability, the line of strong to
   severe storms is being supported by a shortwave trough, evident on
   water-vapor imagery. Ahead of the shortwave trough, the RAP has
   moderate deep-layer shear across much of the southern Great Lakes
   region. The Lincoln, Illinois WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear around 50
   knots, suggesting that a severe threat will continue in the vicinity
   over the next few hours. Large hail and wind damage will be the
   primary threats, although low-level shear on forecast soundings is
   strong enough for a brief tornado as well.

   ..Broyles.. 07/15/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   41658702 41418771 41278879 41139008 40859043 40349030
               40008958 39958841 40078676 40358601 40688542 40968517
               41418489 42518450 43058502 43048597 42598639 41658702