Mesoscale Discussion 1602
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0757 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

   Areas affected...Southeast Montana

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 522...525...

   Valid 140057Z - 140300Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 522, 525
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for severe hail and wind continues as a cluster
   of semi-discrete storms moves into southeast Montana. Gradual
   upscale growth is still expected later this evening as storms move
   towards the Dakotas.

   DISCUSSION...Despite numerous storm interactions, the predominant
   storm mode has remained supercellular across eastern MT. At least
   two supercells continue to exhibit robust mid-level mesocyclones
   based on KGGW velocity imagery, suggesting that these storms may
   persist for the next hour or two with an attendant large hail
   threat. Strong right-mover supercell motion continues to favor a
   mean south/southeasterly storm motion, but propagation along a
   diffuse buoyancy gradient may result in a more southeasterly motion
   with time. Gradual upscale growth is still anticipated later this
   evening as this cluster of semi-discrete storms migrates further
   into southeastern MT. Early hints of a somewhat more consolidated
   cold pool are noted in lowest-tilt velocity imagery between the
   cells, suggesting that eventual upscale growth remains probable -
   though the exact timing remains uncertain. Recent probabilistic
   hazard guidance suggests the wind threat should slowly increase as
   the cluster migrates closer to the ND/SD border.

   ..Moore.. 07/14/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

   LAT...LON   45280547 45470594 45700627 45910661 46130683 46340689
               46520688 46730677 46960641 47180591 47360560 47430538
               47420516 47250470 47120445 46800420 46420396 45940400
               45420408 45110437 45040462 45050477 45160510 45280547