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Mesoscale Discussion 1525 |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1525
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0528 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024
Areas affected...east-central CO into far northwest KS
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501...502...
Valid 032228Z - 032330Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501, 502
continues.
SUMMARY...The greatest risk for significant severe hail between
2-2.5 inches is anticipated through about 7 PM MDT over east-central
Colorado near the I-70 corridor. An increase in severe wind
potential is expected towards the northwest Kansas border.
DISCUSSION...A pair of slow-moving supercells between Denver and
Limon will have the greatest potential to produce large hail beyond
2 inches over the next 2-3 hours. These storms will move towards the
peak buoyancy plume characterized by MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg along
the CO/KS border area. With favorable westerly speed shear above 2
km AGL per the FTG/PUX VWP data, in conjunction with a modest
increase in low-level south-southeasterly flow in the next few
hours, intensification of these supercells is plausible. This will
also include a risk for increasing severe wind gusts, as
persistently indicated by recent WoFS guidance.
..Grams.. 07/03/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...
LAT...LON 39830361 39980274 39970215 39660166 39120175 38850206
38660292 38850368 39380403 39830361
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