NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center

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A Moderate Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight

Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest later today into tonight, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well.

For additional details, see the current Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO).

Critical fire weather conditions are forecast today. See details...

SPC Products Overview

Hazard	Mon (04/28)	Tue (04/29)	Wed (04/30)	Thu (05/01)	Fri (05/02)	Sat (05/03)	Sun (05/04)	Mon (05/05)
Severe	Moderate	Enhanced	Slight	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area
Fire	Critical	Elevated	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area

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Severe Weather Climatology (1982-2011)

Any Severe Probabilities: 28 Apr

Tornado Probabilities: 28 Apr

Damaging Wind Probabilities: 28 Apr

Severe Hail Probabilities: 28 Apr

Significant Tornado Probabilities: 28 Apr

Significant Wind Probabilities: 28 Apr

Significant Hail Probabilities: 28 Apr

More severe weather climatology data here.

2025 Tornado Watch Summary

Page last modified: April 28 2025 12:29 UTC

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2025 Severe Tstm Watch Summary

Page last modified: April 28 2025 12:28 UTC

Wildfire Climatology (1992-2015)

100 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 28 Apr

300 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 28 Apr

1000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 28 Apr

5000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 28 Apr

More wildfire climatology data here.

Latest SPC Publications

Edwards, R., and R.L. Thompson, 2024: Right-Moving Supercell Tornadogenesis during Interaction with a Left-Moving Supercell's Rear-Flank Outflow. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [15153K PDF] (supplemental radar loop, standard enhancements [27170K MP4]), (supplemental radar loop, colorblind enhancements [33950K MP4])
Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2023: A Historical Overview on the Science of Derechos. Part II: Parent Storm Structure, Environmental Conditions, and History of Numerical Forecasts. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [10595K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2023: A Historical Overview on the Science of Derechos. Part I: Identification, Climatology, and Societal Impacts. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [6899K PDF]
Thompson, R.L., 2023: A Comparison of Right-Moving Supercell and Quasi-Linear Convective System Tornadoes in the Contiguous United States 2003-21. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [4539K PDF]
Gallo, B.T., K.A. Wilson, J.J. Choate, K. Knopfmeier, P. Skinner, B. Roberts^*, P.L. Heinselman, I.L. Jirak, and A.J. Clark, 2022: Exploring the Watch-to-Warning Space: Experimental Outlook Performance during the 2019 Spring Forecasting Experiment in NOAA's Hazardous Weather Testbed. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [4328K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., and W.A. Gallus Jr., 2022: On the Changes in Convection-Allowing WRF Forecasts of MCS Evolution due to Decreases in Model Horizontal and Vertical Grid Spacing. Part II: Impacts on QPFs. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [5607K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., and W.A. Gallus Jr., 2022: On the Changes in Convection-Allowing WRF Forecasts of MCS Evolution due to Decreases in Model Horizontal and Vertical Grid Spacing. Part I: Changes in Cold Pool Evolution. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [3655K PDF]
Harrison, D.R., M.S. Elliott, I.L. Jirak, and P.T. Marsh, 2022: Utilizing the High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast System to Produce Calibrated Probabilistic Thunderstorm Guidance. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [2549K PDF]
Find more research articles at the SPC publication archive.

Latest SPC Case Archive

Apr 27, 2025	Tornado: 10	Wind: 23	Hail: 36

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