Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 498
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
440 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Far West-Central Illinois
Eastern Kansas
West-Central and Northern Missouri
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 440 PM until Midnight
CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop through
the early to mid evening across the Watch area. A few of the
stronger storms may evolve into supercells, in addition to organized
line segments. A tornado is possible with any intense supercell or
embedded circulation within a convective line, but the primary
forecast hazards will be 60-75 mph gusts capable of wind damage and
large hail (1 to 2 inches in diameter).
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles northwest of
Emporia KS to 25 miles north northeast of Quincy IL. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 497...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24030.
...Smith
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 498
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
440 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Far West-Central Illinois
Eastern Kansas
West-Central and Northern Missouri
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 440 PM until Midnight
CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop through
the early to mid evening across the Watch area. A few of the
stronger storms may evolve into supercells, in addition to organized
line segments. A tornado is possible with any intense supercell or
embedded circulation within a convective line, but the primary
forecast hazards will be 60-75 mph gusts capable of wind damage and
large hail (1 to 2 inches in diameter).
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles northwest of
Emporia KS to 25 miles north northeast of Quincy IL. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 497...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24030.
...Smith
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 498 SEVERE TSTM IL KS MO 022140Z - 030500Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
30NW EMP/EMPORIA KS/ - 25NNE UIN/QUINCY IL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /52ESE SLN - 29NNE UIN/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
LAT...LON 39369657 41019102 39569102 37919657
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 498 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 498
VALID 030055Z - 030140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W EMP TO
20 NE FLV TO 15 NNW CDJ TO 40 NW IRK.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1517
..MOORE..07/03/24
ATTN...WFO...LSX...TOP...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 498
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC001-030140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS
$$
KSC003-031-045-059-091-103-111-121-139-209-030140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON COFFEY DOUGLAS
FRANKLIN JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH
LYON MIAMI OSAGE
WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC025-033-037-041-047-049-089-095-101-103-107-111-115-117-121-
127-137-175-177-195-205-030140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALDWELL CARROLL CASS
CHARITON CLAY CLINTON
HOWARD JACKSON JOHNSON
KNOX LAFAYETTE LEWIS
LINN LIVINGSTON MACON
MARION MONROE RANDOLPH
RAY SALINE SHELBY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 498
VALID 022350Z - 030040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MHK TO 15
WNW FLV TO 5 SE LWD.
..MOORE..07/02/24
ATTN...WFO...LSX...TOP...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 498
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC001-030040-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS
$$
KSC003-031-045-059-087-091-103-111-121-127-139-177-197-209-
030040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON COFFEY DOUGLAS
FRANKLIN JEFFERSON JOHNSON
LEAVENWORTH LYON MIAMI
MORRIS OSAGE SHAWNEE
WABAUNSEE WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC021-025-033-037-041-047-049-061-063-089-095-101-103-107-111-
115-117-121-127-137-165-175-177-195-205-030040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUCHANAN CALDWELL CARROLL
CASS CHARITON CLAY
CLINTON DAVIESS DEKALB
HOWARD JACKSON JOHNSON
KNOX LAFAYETTE LEWIS
LINN LIVINGSTON MACON
MARION MONROE PLATTE
RANDOLPH RAY SALINE
SHELBY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 498
VALID 022300Z - 030040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MHK TO 25
NNE TOP TO 5 SE LWD.
..MOORE..07/02/24
ATTN...WFO...LSX...TOP...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 498
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC001-030040-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS
$$
KSC003-031-045-059-087-091-103-111-121-127-139-177-197-209-
030040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON COFFEY DOUGLAS
FRANKLIN JEFFERSON JOHNSON
LEAVENWORTH LYON MIAMI
MORRIS OSAGE SHAWNEE
WABAUNSEE WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC021-025-033-037-041-047-049-061-063-089-095-101-103-107-111-
115-117-121-127-137-165-175-177-195-205-030040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUCHANAN CALDWELL CARROLL
CASS CHARITON CLAY
CLINTON DAVIESS DEKALB
HOWARD JACKSON JOHNSON
KNOX LAFAYETTE LEWIS
LINN LIVINGSTON MACON
MARION MONROE PLATTE
RANDOLPH RAY SALINE
SHELBY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.