Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 146
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
745 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 745 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF LA
GRANGE GEORGIA TO 20 MILES EAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 141. WATCH NUMBER 141 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
745 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 142...WW 143...WW 144...WW 145...
DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF SUPERCELLS IN CENTRAL/SRN AL AND SE MS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN ADVANCE OF THE
MS VALLEY MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY. WEAK-MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THIS
AREA...AND THE TORNADO/SEVERE THREAT WILL EXPAND EWD TONIGHT AS THE
LOW LEVELS MOISTEN FARTHER E INTO SE AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE. A
STRONG TORNADO OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT WITH EFFECTIVE SRH NEAR 500 M2/S2.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 146 TORNADO AL FL MS CW 160045Z - 160800Z
AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
30NW LGC/LA GRANGE GA/ - 20E MOB/MOBILE AL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /19NW LGC - 23E SJI/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.
REPLACES WW 141..AL MS CW
LAT...LON 33298387 30678640 30678943 33298700
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 146 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 146
VALID 160650Z - 160740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW PNS TO
20 N LGC.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 449.
..KERR..04/16/11
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 146
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-005-011-017-031-039-041-045-053-061-067-069-081-087-109-
113-160740-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN BARBOUR BULLOCK
CHAMBERS COFFEE COVINGTON
CRENSHAW DALE ESCAMBIA
GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON
LEE MACON PIKE
RUSSELL
$$
FLC033-059-091-113-131-160740-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA HOLMES OKALOOSA
SANTA ROSA WALTON
$$
GMZ630-160740-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
MOBILE BAY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 146
VALID 160535Z - 160640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E MOB TO
30 NW LGC.
..KERR..04/16/11
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 146
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-005-011-013-017-027-031-035-037-039-041-045-051-053-061-
067-069-081-087-101-109-111-113-123-160640-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN BARBOUR BULLOCK
BUTLER CHAMBERS CLAY
COFFEE CONECUH COOSA
COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE
ELMORE ESCAMBIA GENEVA
HENRY HOUSTON LEE
MACON MONTGOMERY PIKE
RANDOLPH RUSSELL TALLAPOOSA
$$
FLC033-059-091-113-131-160640-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA HOLMES OKALOOSA
SANTA ROSA WALTON
$$
GMZ630-160640-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
MOBILE BAY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 146
VALID 160440Z - 160540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE GPT
TO 45 NNE MOB TO 20 SW ANB.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 448
..COHEN..04/16/11
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 146
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-003-005-011-013-017-021-025-027-031-035-037-039-041-045-
051-053-061-067-069-081-085-087-097-099-101-109-111-113-123-131-
160540-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BALDWIN BARBOUR
BULLOCK BUTLER CHAMBERS
CHILTON CLARKE CLAY
COFFEE CONECUH COOSA
COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE
ELMORE ESCAMBIA GENEVA
HENRY HOUSTON LEE
LOWNDES MACON MOBILE
MONROE MONTGOMERY PIKE
RANDOLPH RUSSELL TALLAPOOSA
WILCOX
$$
FLC033-059-091-113-131-160540-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA HOLMES OKALOOSA
SANTA ROSA WALTON
$$
MSC039-160540-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GEORGE
$$
GMZ630-160540-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
MOBILE BAY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 146
VALID 160350Z - 160440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE PIB TO
45 SW SEM TO 15 SSE BHM.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 448
..COHEN..04/16/11
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 146
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-003-005-011-013-017-021-025-027-031-035-037-039-041-045-
047-051-053-061-067-069-081-085-087-097-099-101-109-111-113-117-
121-123-129-131-160440-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BALDWIN BARBOUR
BULLOCK BUTLER CHAMBERS
CHILTON CLARKE CLAY
COFFEE CONECUH COOSA
COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE
DALLAS ELMORE ESCAMBIA
GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON
LEE LOWNDES MACON
MOBILE MONROE MONTGOMERY
PIKE RANDOLPH RUSSELL
SHELBY TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA
WASHINGTON WILCOX
$$
FLC033-059-091-113-131-160440-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA HOLMES OKALOOSA
SANTA ROSA WALTON
$$
MSC039-041-111-131-160440-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GEORGE GREENE PERRY
STONE
$$
GMZ630-160440-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
MOBILE BAY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 146
VALID 160240Z - 160340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..COHEN..04/16/11
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 146
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-003-005-007-011-013-017-021-023-025-027-031-035-037-039-
041-045-047-051-053-061-065-067-069-081-085-087-091-097-099-101-
105-109-111-113-117-121-123-129-131-160340-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BALDWIN BARBOUR
BIBB BULLOCK BUTLER
CHAMBERS CHILTON CHOCTAW
CLARKE CLAY COFFEE
CONECUH COOSA COVINGTON
CRENSHAW DALE DALLAS
ELMORE ESCAMBIA GENEVA
HALE HENRY HOUSTON
LEE LOWNDES MACON
MARENGO MOBILE MONROE
MONTGOMERY PERRY PIKE
RANDOLPH RUSSELL SHELBY
TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA WASHINGTON
WILCOX
$$
FLC033-059-091-113-131-160340-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA HOLMES OKALOOSA
SANTA ROSA WALTON
$$
MSC039-041-111-131-153-160340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GEORGE GREENE PERRY
STONE WAYNE
$$
GMZ630-160340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
MOBILE BAY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 146
VALID 160140Z - 160240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..COHEN..04/16/11
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 146
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-003-005-007-011-013-017-021-023-025-027-031-035-037-039-
041-045-047-051-053-061-065-067-069-081-085-087-091-097-099-101-
105-109-111-113-117-121-123-129-131-160240-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BALDWIN BARBOUR
BIBB BULLOCK BUTLER
CHAMBERS CHILTON CHOCTAW
CLARKE CLAY COFFEE
CONECUH COOSA COVINGTON
CRENSHAW DALE DALLAS
ELMORE ESCAMBIA GENEVA
HALE HENRY HOUSTON
LEE LOWNDES MACON
MARENGO MOBILE MONROE
MONTGOMERY PERRY PIKE
RANDOLPH RUSSELL SHELBY
TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA WASHINGTON
WILCOX
$$
FLC033-059-091-113-131-160240-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA HOLMES OKALOOSA
SANTA ROSA WALTON
$$
MSC039-041-111-131-153-160240-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GEORGE GREENE PERRY
STONE WAYNE
$$
GMZ630-160240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
MOBILE BAY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
High (80%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (50%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.